Just over every week in the past, MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald mentioned the National League Central, which is arguably MLB’s most tightly-contested division. While no different division compares to that projected dogfight, the American League East gives the Central with a worthy rival in that regard as the one different division that Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA tasks to not embrace a 90-loss workforce. Indeed, there’s an argument to be made that the battle for the AL East this yr figures to be much more hotly contested. After all, PECOTA tasks each the Pirates and Reds to complete with a decrease win whole than any of the groups within the AL East, whereas Fangraphs tasks the East as the one division within the majors and not using a sub-.500 membership.
That projection techniques see the AL East as a division with 5 potential contenders is supported by final yr’s outcomes. The Orioles led the pack final season with a 101-win document, capturing the division title regardless of a robust displaying from the Rays, who completed two video games behind Baltimore. Both Tampa and Toronto additionally managed to make the postseason final yr, whereas New York and Boston each remained on the periphery of the playoff image into September regardless of finally arising brief. Since then, every membership has seen important adjustments, and with the likes of Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery nonetheless in the marketplace, it’s straightforward to think about a number of of those membership’s additional enhancing their inventory previous to Opening Day. In the meantime, let’s check out the place issues stand within the American League’s best division:
Orioles: 101-61 in 2023, FG tasks 85 wins in 2024, PECOTA 86.2
The Orioles have been maybe probably the most shocking workforce in baseball final yr, surging to the membership’s first AL East title for the reason that 2014 season due to contributions from kids like Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, and Grayson Rodriguez. Those identical younger gamers will probably be again this season and determine to be joined by consensus #1 total prospect Jackson Holliday sooner or later this season, maybe as quickly as Opening Day. The membership’s thrilling younger core figures to as soon as once more be complemented by stable veterans resembling Cedric Mullins and Anthony Santander as effectively, giving them a robust offensive nucleus with which to try to proceed their reign atop the East.
With that being stated, the membership has seen some turnover this winter. Veteran starter Kyle Gibson departed the rotation through free company this winter, and whereas the membership swung a deal earlier this offseason to accumulate former Brewers ace Corbin Burnes to entrance their rotation, dealing away promising southpaw DL Hall and infielder Joey Ortiz might be one thing of a blow to the membership’s depth headed into the season. More noticeably, two key pitchers from the 2023 season are coming into the season with important accidents: nearer Felix Bautista underwent Tommy John surgical procedure late final yr and figures to overlook all the 2024 marketing campaign, whereas right-hander Kyle Bradish faces a prolonged absence of his personal on account of a UCL subject after main the Baltimore rotation final season with a sterling 2.83 ERA throughout 30 begins.
While the accidents confronted by Bradish and Bautista depart the Orioles with out two of their high pitchers to open the season, the additions of Burnes and veteran nearer Craig Kimbrel ought to assist to melt these blows, and with kids resembling Holliday, Cade Povich, and Coby Mayo all on the verge of contributing on the massive league degree, there’s loads of motive to imagine Baltimore can stay within the higher echelon of the league headed into 2024 so long as the membership’s younger stars can keep away from taking a step again this season.
Rays: 99-63 in 2023, FG tasks 86 wins in 2024, PECOTA 86.9
The Rays began the 2023 marketing campaign on an unimaginable sizzling streak, profitable a record-breaking 13 consecutive video games to open the season final yr due to robust pitching performances from the likes of Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen, and Shane McClanahan. Unfortunately, every of these aforementioned arms underwent season-ending surgical procedure final yr and are anticipated to overlook at the least the primary half of the 2024 marketing campaign, if not longer. Tampa’s rotation combine was additional weakened by the membership dealing right-hander Tyler Glasnow to the Dodgers again in December, leaving the membership with little certainty within the beginning combine outdoors of Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale. Another main loss from a manufacturing standpoint is shortstop Wander Franco, who posted 4.6 fWAR in 112 video games final yr however is going through sexual abuse expenses in his native Dominican Republic that put his future within the majors doubtful.
Even with that hefty variety of losses, nevertheless, the Rays nonetheless determine to be a pressure to be reckoned with headed into 2024. After all, the membership sports activities one of many deepest lineups within the sport, led by the likes of Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe, Isaac Paredes and Randy Arozarena. In addition to that group, the membership sports activities loads of younger expertise with the likes of Junior Caminero, Josh Lowe, and Curtis Mead all anticipated to contribute on the massive league degree sooner or later this season on the positional facet. Meanwhile, the pitching workers boasts intriguing kids like Taj Bradley, Shane Baz, and offseason acquisition Ryan Pepiot, every of whom are more likely to be a part of Civale and Eflin as rotation items this season. The membership’s perennially glorious bullpen continues to look robust as effectively, with a back-end trio of Pete Fairbanks, Jason Adam, and Colin Poche bolstered by offseason additions resembling Phil Maton.
Given the variety of important absences the Rays are going through coming into the season, it’s not essentially shocking that projections techniques anticipate the membership to take a significant step again in 2024. The membership figures to depend on the likes of Jose Caballero and Taylor Walls instead of Franco at brief and younger, unproven arms like Bradley and Pepiot instead of established energy arms like McClanahan and Rasmussen. Even so, the membership’s deep lineup and robust bullpen determine to maintain the membership in rivalry for the AL East crown this season, significantly if the kids within the rotation discover success within the massive leagues.
Blue Jays: 89-73 in 2023, FG tasks 85 wins in 2024, PECOTA 88.6
The 2023 season was a wierd one in Toronto, as key stars resembling Alejandro Kirk, George Springer, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. took steps again on the plate to go away the membership with a surprisingly tepid offense. That didn’t cease the Jays from contending final yr, nevertheless, because the membership managed to sneak into the ultimate AL Wild Card spot with an 89-win marketing campaign due to a robust efficiency from the membership’s beginning rotation. Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Yusei Kikuchi, and Chris Bassitt every mixed to offer the membership above-average manufacturing whereas making greater than 30 begins a bit, and veteran southpaw Hyun-Jin Ryu managed to step into the rotation and supply stable back-end manufacturing when teen Alek Manoah struggled badly all through the season.
Entering the offseason, the membership appeared poised to make massive adjustments as they have been linked to the likes of Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto, although they finally ended up having a a lot quieter offseason. After watching the likes of Matt Chapman and Brandon Belt depart in free company, the membership introduced within the likes of Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Justin Turner to fill the void at third base and DH whereas including to their pitching depth with the addition of Yariel Rodriguez. Those minor strikes depart the membership more likely to search for inside enhancements as they hope to return to the postseason in 2024. Some of that enchancment might come from the membership’s younger expertise, with high pitching prospect Ricky Tiedemann more likely to debut someday this yr whereas the likes of Davis Schneider and Ernie Clement determine to try to ascertain themselves in bigger roles.
While the membership’s lineup took a little bit of a success this winter after a disappointing 2023 marketing campaign, a strong pitching workers figures to maintain the Blue Jays afloat this season even when the offense fails to take a step ahead. It’s straightforward to think about the membership returning to the postseason in 2024 if stars like Bo Bichette, Guerrero, and Springer can ship impactful performances, particularly if the membership will get robust manufacturing from its supporting solid of hitters like Turner, Schneider, and Daulton Varsho.
Yankees: 82-80 in 2023, FG tasks 89 wins in 2024, PECOTA 94.7
After lacking the postseason for the primary time since 2017 and barely escaping the 2023 season with a profitable document, the Yankees wasted no time this winter in seeking to enhance the membership’s postseason possibilities for yr two of Aaron Judge’s nine-year megadeal with the membership. That included an entire retool of the membership’s outfield combine because the membership acquired Juan Soto, Trent Grisham, and Alex Verdugo to enhance Judge on the outfield grass whereas balancing a lineup that leaned too right-handed in 2023. The blockbuster deal for Soto and Grisham price the membership loads of massive league pitching expertise, together with the likes of Michael King and Randy Vasquez, although New York went on to patch up the membership’s beginning rotation by touchdown veteran right-hander Marcus Stroman in free company.
That prolonged offseason purchasing listing appears more likely to depart them in robust place to contend this season whilst they misplaced the likes of Luis Severino, Harrison Bader, and King from final yr’s membership. Even because the membership added a high quality mid-rotation arm, stable outfield regulars, and a famous person bat to its combine, nevertheless, it’s attainable the membership’s most impactful enhancements might come internally after the membership handled a hefty variety of accidents final yr. Judge adopted up his 2022 AL MVP-winning efficiency with one other season that noticed him submit an OPS north of 1.000 in 2023, although he was restricted to only 106 video games by a toe damage. Meanwhile, southpaws Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodon each struggled badly with accidents and ineffectiveness final yr however nonetheless carry front-of-the-rotation upside when wholesome, whereas veteran hitters like Stanton and Anthony Rizzo might additionally profit from improved well being this season and rebound from tough 2023 campaigns.
Of all of the golf equipment within the AL East, it’s straightforward to make the argument that the Yankees did probably the most to enhance this winter. While even these additions might not be sufficient to catch as much as the membership’s divisional rivals on their very own after an 82-win marketing campaign, improved well being from the membership’s key regulars each on the mound and within the lineup might actually assist the membership keep away from lacking the postseason in back-to-back campaigns for the primary time for the reason that 2013 and ’14 seasons.
Red Sox: 78-84 in 2023, FG tasks 81 wins in 2024, PECOTA 79.2
It’s been a wierd offseason in Boston, because the membership started the winter with guarantees of a “full throttle” strategy to the 2024 season and a purpose of enhancing the membership’s rotation. Despite these main plans, the membership has usually opted for smaller strikes all through the winter. Perhaps the membership’s most notable transfer was parting methods with longtime ace Chris Sale in a commerce that netted the membership younger infielder Vaughn Grissom, whereas Sale’s spot atop the membership’s rotation seems poised to go to right-hander Lucas Giolito.
The membership additionally added outfielder Tyler O’Neill in a commerce with the Cardinals whereas signing veteran nearer Liam Hendriks to a two-year deal, although the righty received’t impression the workforce till the second half on the earliest as he recovers from Tommy John surgical procedure. Those strikes roughly depart the membership in an identical place as they have been final season, with Giolito changing Sale whereas O’Neill and Grissom determine to exchange Adam Duvall and Turner within the membership’s lineup. While the membership’s most vital offseason losses have been changed in a single type or one other, different departures resembling these of James Paxton, Alex Verdugo, and John Schreiber have all gone unanswered thus far within the winter.
Despite the membership’s many query marks, there’s some motive for optimism in Boston, due to the younger expertise that might impression the membership this yr. In addition to Grissom serving as a possible resolution at second base, Triston Casas, Jarren Duran, and Brayan Bello took important steps ahead final yr and will show to be core items for the membership, whereas kids like Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela might additionally impression the membership this season after making transient cameos within the majors final yr. It’s actually attainable to think about Trevor Story returning to the shape that when made him a star with the Rockies now that he’s additional faraway from the elbow troubles that price him a lot of final season, and Masataka Yoshida might be an impactful bat if he can recreate his efficiency from the primary half of 2023 over the total season this yr. Meanwhile, the rotation includes a handful of attention-grabbing kids resembling Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock, and Kutter Crawford, any of whom might show to be an impactful arm in the event that they handle to take a step ahead this yr.
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On the heels of a 2023 season that noticed three of the division’s 5 groups make the postseason and its fifth-place finisher finish the season with a greater document than the fourth place finishers of 4 different divisions, it’s maybe not a shock that the AL East figures to as soon as once more be among the many best divisions in baseball this yr. After a busy offseason within the division, which workforce do you assume will come out on high? Was the Yankees’ splashy offseason to place them again within the driver’s seat? Will one other yr of growth for the younger gamers in Baltimore enable them to repeat their dominant 2023 marketing campaign? Will the deep rosters of the Rays or Blue Jays handle to outlast the competitors? Or might the Red Sox outperform the projections and take the division on the again of their younger gamers and rebound candidates?
Which workforce within the AL East is finest? Have your say within the ballot under!