Could the Revolutionary Guards convey out the Wagner Group’s actions in Iran? Some Iranians need that.
“The army staged a coup in opposition to the regime… it was Russia,” stated a meme depicting a laughing and disillusioned former Iranian crown prince, Reza Pahlavi. On June 23-24, mercenaries from the Wagner Group, led by Evgeny Prigozhin, marched in direction of Moscow to destroy the Russian army headquarters, and inside 24 hours they have been inside 125 miles of the capital. Ukrainians weren’t the one ones watching with schadenfreude and hope. Many Iranians, each inside Iran and within the diaspora,I puzzled If Russian President Vladimir Putin, one of many clergy’s strongest allies, have been to be ousted, what would that imply for the way forward for the Islamic Republic?
Former Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi Meme.
Upon information of the Prigozhin-led rebellion, the Telegram channel of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) instantly reported breaking information. One viral screenshot of him on IRGC’s predominant channel was reposted. Tweet A professional-regime journalist emphasised: [Bashar al-]Assad, we are going to forestall the autumn of Putin. ”
The Islamic Republic’s higher echelons reacted shortly to the incident. “The Islamic Republic of Iran helps the rule of legislation within the Russian Federation,” a Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated on June 24, with out mentioning Putin in any respect, including that the rebellion was an “inner situation.” . Russian media reported that Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi met with President Putin on the identical day, however didn’t present particulars of the dialogue. Meanwhile, Iran’s international minister spoke along with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov about “developments associated to the state of affairs in some areas of Russia,” referring to occasions in Bakhmut, the place the rebel reached its peak. Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdullahian stated Russia would “go this stage” and warned in opposition to “international interference.”
State media gave a greater image of how the higher echelons interpreted the rebellion.Noor News, particulars tied to the Supreme Council of National Security, tweeted The Wagner Group stated its involvement within the Ukraine struggle might have a “devastating psychological affect,” however the group “lacks the mandatory energy to counter Russian forces.”
خلاصه جنگ روسیه و واگنرا در 19ثانیه#حسن_ختام#روسیه#کودتا #واگنر #واگنرها pic.twitter.com/zxBIwqETOp
— trader mohammad 🇮🇷 🇵🇸 (@Shobeirinasab) June 25, 2023
A memed scene from Braveheart
On June 25, when the Wagner Group’s insurgency seemed to be over, state media lined the incident with front-page headlines primarily criticizing the mercenary group’s leaders and their forces. The hard-line each day Kayhan promoted in style conspiracy theories blaming the West and NATO. A headline within the hard-line newspaper Jawan referred to Prigozhin stabbing Putin within the again, saying: “The traitor’s dagger didn’t lower by.” Even pro-regime social media customers downplayed the incident. Post In a memed scene from Braveheart, Ukraine and the United States watch in glee as Wagner and a Russian jet are about to collide, solely to see them kiss and make up. Ta.
The Reformed treatise took a barely extra nuanced strategy. The reformist Hamihan newspaper printed an editorial that stated the rebellion might function a “wake-up name” for the Iranian authorities to not rely solely on the east, referring to China and Russia. Similarly, opposition was voiced by Heshmatollah Farahtopisheh, former head of Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Affairs Committee. He argued that it was “clearly apparent that President Putin can’t have a steady future” and that Russia was headed for a “reversion.” [Boris] Yeltsin period. ”
None of those reactions are all that stunning. A professional-Russian stance was anticipated for the reason that Islamic Republic is certainly one of Moscow’s main army supporters.
Since the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Iran has offered Russia with lots of of assault drones and is presently offering supplies to construct an Iranian drone manufacturing manufacturing unit east of Moscow. The two international locations additionally rely closely on one another as a part of the sanctions avoidance axis, with reportedly $4.9 billion in commerce happening in 2022 (a 20% enhance in comparison with 2021).
There can be a component of sentimental energy, making Iran one of many prime three vacationer locations for Russian vacationers (after Turkey and India). Furthermore, the historic drama collection “Khatun” (“Once Upon a Time in Iran”), which depicts the British-Soviet occupation of Iran throughout World War II, has been criticized for not portraying Moscow favorably. It triggered an argument in Iran.
اجارهی این گروه وانگر واسه یک هفته چقدر میشه ؟ 💅🏻#کودتا pic.twitter.com/28o7xkaLm2
— Daenerys 𓃬☀︎︎ (@Queennkhaleesi) June 25, 2023
“How a lot does it value to hire the Wagner Group for per week?”
Although the Islamic Republic’s official establishments tried to downplay the occasions in Russia, many Iranians made a joke While Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei talks on social media about the opportunity of turning into an orphan if Papa Putin falls, one individual stated: Asked How a lot does it value to “hire a Wagner Group for per week” to do the next? take Bring out Khamenei.one other Iranian made a joke It was as if the late commander of the Revolutionary Guard Quds Force, Qassem Soleimani, and the supreme chief have been in a direct confrontation, with the previous making an attempt to grab Tehran.
That final tweet notably mirrored the ideas of some in Iranian society who’re pondering whether or not comparable occasions will happen in Iran within the close to future. Some Iranians have lengthy held the concept that as soon as the supreme chief ultimately dies, the Revolutionary Guards will take the reins of the nation within the type of a social-liberal army dictatorship; It has solely gotten stronger over the previous few months. Anti-regime demonstrations that started in September 2022 proceed. Separately, Pahlavi, a number one determine within the Islamic Republic’s Western-based opposition, has urged members of the Revolutionary Guards who’ve dedicated no atrocities to defect and be a part of the folks in overthrowing the regime. calling repeatedly. meme initially of the piece).
The Revolutionary Guards shouldn’t be a monolith, and has its personal exterior operations arm, the Quds Force, however maybe there could also be similarities between it and the Wagner Group (the previous can be state-funded). Although it has performed a task in conflicts corresponding to Libya, Mali, and India (Ukraine), such comparisons are finest prevented.
The position of the Revolutionary Guards for the reason that Nineteen Eighties has been to guard the Islamic Republic from inner and exterior threats, corresponding to large-scale riots, coups, and international intervention. Therefore, the IRGC shares his Velayat-e Faqih’s personal ideology. Since Ayatollah Khamenei turned supreme chief in 1989, the Revolutionary Guards have managed a lot of Iran’s economic system, swayed elections, and suppressed opposition, each domestically and in regional international locations (Lebanon, Syria). It has additionally performed a serious position externally, together with involvement in , Iraq, Yemen). It is very unlikely that the Revolutionary Guards would fully break free from the clerical system as a way to overthrow its management.
What the Revolutionary Guards continues to do is place its members in excessive positions in authorities, and Raisi’s cupboard has the very best variety of positions held by the Revolutionary Guards in comparison with previous administrations. The Guards will proceed to play an vital position as the following supreme chief’s proper hand.
Following the information from Russia, the Islamic Republic’s safety and intelligence providers, like a lot of the worldwide neighborhood, have been carefully monitoring the incident to find out its end result. Had Prigozhin carried out his plan and succeeded in ousting Putin, the Iranian authorities’s calculations with certainly one of its key allies would even have needed to be adjusted accordingly. But simply because the Russian president sees the continuing anti-regime protests in Iran as a nuisance for the clergy, the Iranian authorities solely sees the canceled assault on Moscow as a nuisance for Putin. wouldn’t have. In November 2022, Raisi and Putin mentioned deepening bilateral ties amid escalating protests in Iran, however the Russian president reportedly didn’t even convey up the unrest.
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Image: Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) army personnel stand in entrance of portraits of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei (R) and former Revolutionary Guards Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani after a ceremony on the Iranian Interior Ministry constructing. . Downtown Tehran, April 14, 2022. (Photo offered by Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto)