Armenia cited the “dire humanitarian state of affairs within the Gaza Strip and the continuing navy battle” when it introduced its formal recognition of Palestine as a state on June 21. But Yerevan’s reckoning started lengthy earlier than the present struggle in Gaza and has much less to do with the Middle East battle than with one nearer to residence within the Caucasus.
Israel has lengthy been an in depth ally of Armenia’s enemy, Azerbaijan. Israeli purchases of Azerbaijani oil have enriched Baku’s coffers, and Israeli weapons have performed a key function in Azerbaijan’s recapture of territory misplaced to Armenian forces within the Nineteen Nineties between 2020 and 2023.
With Israel now going through rising worldwide isolation because of the struggle in Gaza, Yerevan seized the chance to launch a retaliatory assault.
“It is Israeli coverage itself that has led Armenia to undertake a pro-Palestinian stance,” stated Richard Giragosian, director of the Yerevan-based suppose tank Center for Regional Studies.
“This is because of unprecedented navy assist from Israel to Azerbaijan, which has solely strengthened and intensified Azerbaijan’s reliance on pressure towards Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh,” he stated, referring to Nagorno-Karabakh, the epicenter of the battle between ethnic Armenians and Azerbaijanis.
“Enemy of my enemy”
For each Baku and Yerevan, the Israeli-Palestinian battle has lengthy been considered by way of the lens of the struggle within the Caucasus.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Azerbaijan and Israel shortly started to forge nearer ties primarily based on the precept of “the enemy of my enemy is my buddy,” on this case Iran. Baku is worried about Iran’s potential affect over its majority Shiite inhabitants, whereas Tehran is worried about Azerbaijan’s potential affect over the big ethnic Azerbaijani inhabitants in Iran’s north.
“Like Israel, Azerbaijan views Iran as a serious safety risk, even an existential risk, and cooperation between the 2 nations stems from this widespread understanding,” stated a 2009 diplomatic cable leaked from the U.S. Embassy in Baku.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan (left) and Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev
But initially, relations between the 2 nations have been comparatively low-key: In a U.S. cable, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev was quoted as describing relations with Israel as “an iceberg, 90 p.c of which is beneath water.” Azerbaijan didn’t even open an embassy in Israel, frightened of response from Arab nations that sought its assist in its battle towards Armenia.
This relationship soured relations between Israel and Armenia. Out of respect for its Azerbaijani companion (and wishing to take care of ties with Turkey), Israel has persistently refused to categorise the massacres of Armenians below the Ottoman Empire as genocide. To Armenians, this transfer was hypocritical for a state based after the Holocaust. In UN votes on Israel and Palestine, Armenia has persistently voted for Palestine.
Armenia, nevertheless, didn’t acknowledge Palestine. This was the results of Yerevan’s coverage of not recognizing Nagorno-Karabakh, the de facto state established by ethnic Armenians after the First Karabakh War within the Nineteen Nineties, so long as negotiations with Azerbaijan over its territory continued. Armenia’s formal recognition of Karabakh would have been seen by Azerbaijanis (and others) as a de facto abandonment of the negotiations.
The iceberg emerges
Over time, Israeli-Azerbaijani relations started to emerge from the abyss, and emphasizing the nation’s longstanding and heat ties with Jews each in Azerbaijan and all over the world grew to become a staple of Azerbaijan’s authorities messaging.
Azerbaijan has develop into more and more reliant on Israeli weaponry. Between 2018 and 2022, Azerbaijan accounted for greater than 9% of Israel’s arms exports, second solely to India on this planet. Israeli weaponry, notably drones, performed a key function in Azerbaijan’s victory within the Second Karabakh War in 2020.
The struggle has accelerated Azerbaijan-Israel ties and Armenia-Israel battle, with Armenia growing nearer ties with Iran, which has promised Armenia safety ensures (albeit obscure) towards potential assaults by Azerbaijan.
And Armenians’ anger towards Israel is rising. In a December 2023 International Republican Institute ballot, Armenians rated relations with Israel barely greater than with Turkey. Yerevan’s solely synagogue has been attacked 4 occasions since October 2023, most lately in early June. Israeli officers stated the assaults have been the results of the nation’s arms commerce with Azerbaijan.
The struggle prompted Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to formally recognise Nagorno-Karabakh as Azerbaijan’s territory, thus abandoning the earlier precept of not recognising the controversial territory.
When Armenia introduced its formal recognition of Palestine as a state, it cited “the catastrophic humanitarian state of affairs within the Gaza Strip and the continuing navy battle.”
In a way, Armenia’s transfer marks it becoming a member of the mainstream: More than 140 nations already acknowledge Palestine, together with all of Armenia’s neighbors and many of the former Soviet republics.
Complicating issues, nevertheless, is the small variety of nations that don’t recognise Palestine, concentrated in Western Europe and North America – the very nations Armenia is attempting to draw because it seeks to interrupt away from its former dependency on Russia.
While recognition has brought about uproar in Western capitals earlier than, Armenia has taken some consolation from the truth that different European nations, together with Ireland, Norway, Slovenia and Spain, have additionally lately acknowledged Palestine as a state. Analyst Giragosian stated these earlier strikes “minimized Armenia’s subsequent diplomatic vulnerability and isolation.”
Azerbaijan’s response
Armenia’s acceptance of Palestine has put Azerbaijan on the again foot, making it much more troublesome to take care of steadiness within the Middle East.
Yerevan’s recognition drew uncommon reward from Turkey, Palestine’s most distinguished defender and Azerbaijan’s closest ally, and highlighted how Palestine has develop into one other think about Azerbaijan-Turkey relations, the place pro-Palestinian protesters have focused the workplaces of Azerbaijan’s state oil firm SOCAR within the nation.
Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev (proper) meets with Israeli President Isaac Herzog in Baku in May 2023. Israeli purchases of Azerbaijani oil have enriched Baku’s coffers, and Israeli weaponry has contributed tremendously to Azerbaijan’s latest navy successes.
And after a latest assembly between the leaders of the 2 nations, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wrote in a abstract of the assembly that he and Aliyev mentioned “Israeli aggression in Gaza.” An Azerbaijani abstract of the identical assembly made no notable point out of the Middle East.
The response of the Baku authorities and pro-government media to Armenia’s transfer to acknowledge Palestine as a state has been muted.
“Overall, Azerbaijan finds itself in a really precarious place of sustaining shut ties with Israel whereas weathering the worldwide backlash towards Israel’s assaults on Gaza,” stated Shujaat Ahmadzada, an impartial analyst primarily based in Baku.
He stated that even amongst extraordinary Azerbaijanis, the Israeli assaults on Gaza seem to have prompted a shift from a common pro-Israel stance to sympathy for the Palestinians.
He stated he did not have knowledge on the matter, however “I’ve personally witnessed how pro-Israel Azerbaijan has turned overtly anti-Israel over the previous few months,” including, “Very few overtly assist Israel now.”