In the complex geopolitical landscape of the Middle East, the rise of Esmail Qaani as the leader of the Quds Force, succeeding Qasem Soleimani, marks a pivotal shift in the region’s power dynamics. My in-depth analysis, drawing from firsthand experiences in Iraq (2003-2017) and insights from numerous Middle Eastern counterterrorism experts, indicates a worrying increase in regional instability under Qaani’s reign.
Qaani’s Approach to Leadership
Esmail Qaani’s approach contrasts with Soleimani’s more overt tactics. His subtler yet equally impactful strategies involve supporting Shi’ite and Sunni terrorist groups with advanced ballistic missiles, challenging US and Israeli influence, and hinting at Iran’s unwavering stance in regional conflicts.
Ballistic Missile Proliferation
Qaani’s distribution of ballistic missiles to terrorist factions poses significant threats to regional and international security, raising the stakes for American and Israeli interests and potentially escalating to a broader conflict.
Eilat Port Attack
The recent assault on Israel’s Eilat Port, conducted by the Quds Force’s Iraqi faction, underscores the enhanced capabilities of terrorist groups under Iran’s patronage. This event signals escalating tensions and potential advancements in warfare tactics.
Cyprus Incident
The thwarted operation in Cyprus, targeting Israeli businessmen, highlights Iran’s extensive transnational terrorism network. Utilizing disputed areas like the Turkish Cypriot north for such activities, Iran’s regime is seen to be expanding its influence.
Global Security Implications
The global security ramifications of Qaani’s leadership are profound. The advanced arsenal and potential nuclear ambitions of these Iran-backed groups, coupled with sleeper cells targeting Western nations, necessitate urgent international action.
Conclusion
Esmail Qaani’s leadership of the Quds Force is a crucial turning point in Middle Eastern geopolitics. The international community must prioritize global peace and stability, and implement effective counterterrorism measures to counter these escalating threats.
Written by a counterterrorism analyst and Middle East studies researcher based in Washington, a Jewish Kurd of Iran and author of “The Gruesome Mullah.” More information at www.erfanfard.com.