The American news platform Media Line, in a report on Tuesday, January 1, 2024, reviewed the developments in the Middle East over the past year and addressed the changes expected in the region in the upcoming 12 months.
According to the report, experts analyzing the region’s changes believe that the Israel-Gaza war after Hamas’s invasion on October 7 was the most significant event of 2023. However, it was not the only important event, as the Middle East underwent significant changes in various other areas that could also cast a shadow on the new year.
Geopolitical and Economic Developments
Hugo Corden Lloyd, an intelligence expert based in Britain specialized in Iranian issues, stated, “The impact of the Gaza war in the coming months will be significantly felt in the region, setting the stage for different governments to exploit or exacerbate the instability.”
He emphasized the role of the Islamic Republic of Iran in this context, suggesting that Tehran may consider Western reactions to Russia’s attack on Ukraine as a benchmark for assessing Western strategic and military red lines. This could influence Iran’s inclination to directly engage in a war and its support for regional conflicts, including escalating involvement in Lebanon.
Nadim Ahmad Monakel, a researcher at an international institute in Riyadh, also pointed out the impact of the Gaza war on the global economy.
At the same time, he highlighted the unexpected agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia to normalize relations as one of the most significant geopolitical events of the past year. This agreement signifies a departure from traditional American influence in the region, especially with China acting as a mediator.
Monakel also mentioned the increasing assertiveness among regional powers as reflecting a broader shift in regional and global geopolitics. He explained that regional powers are seeking to strengthen their strategic autonomy and adapt to geopolitical dynamics.
He also referred to the expansion of BRICS as a crucial development in the region, with new members such as Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. BRICS is now seen as a vital alternative to Western hegemony.
However, Moran Zaga, a researcher on Gulf countries at the University of Jerusalem and the Mitvim Institute, emphasized the increased involvement of the United States as a major regional change.
Zaga stated, “While Middle Eastern countries are formulating regional solutions, the Biden administration has taken a step forward in its policy and influence in the Middle East in 2023.”
Zaga pointed out the normalization talks between Israel and Saudi Arabia, as well as the continued security coordination between Israel and Middle Eastern Arab countries, as important developments in 2023.
He described these events as facilitating stronger ties with Europe through Gulf countries and Israel, as well as the expansion of Israel’s interactions with North African countries and the strengthening of the Abraham Accords.
Environmental Developments
Monakel mentioned the challenges of effectively responding to potential natural disasters in the region, citing earthquakes in Morocco and Turkey. He noted that the response to natural disasters in the Middle East in the past year highlighted the limitations in preparedness, particularly in earthquake-prone areas.
He also emphasized that environmental issues exacerbate the existing challenges in war-torn countries like Syria and Libya.
It is expected that Iran’s four-year drought will be another significant environmental issue in the near future, posing fundamental risks and challenges for the country.
Outlook for 2024
Moran Zaga, a researcher on Gulf countries at the University of Jerusalem, discussed the outlook for 2024, stating that as long as the Israel-Hamas conflict is unresolved, the region will likely undergo more dynamic changes, but it is premature to predict their precise impact.
Corden Lloyd, the intelligence expert based in Britain, stressed that with the escalation of the conflict across the Middle East, the region is likely to face increased insecurity. He mentioned potential expansion of involvement by groups affiliated with Iran and emphasized the use of proxy forces to weaken regional security, particularly by Iran.
Nadim Ahmad Monakel, an international affairs researcher, predicted a significant shift towards increased cooperation between Gulf countries and Asian powers. He also suggested progress in technology and the strengthening of regional alliances and partnerships.
He further added that the technology rivalry between the United States and China, especially regarding semiconductors, will likely influence the development of technology in the Middle East.