Marcus Johnson:
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Hello, everybody, and thanks for hanging out with us for the Behind the Numbers Weekly Listen an eMarketer podcast Made attainable by Intuit MailChimp. This is the Friday present that’s coping with a warmth wave. The planet’s ruined, however for now, issues are nice. Sorry to everybody who has youngsters. I’m your host, Marcus Johnson. In at present’s present, what to make of the author’s strike deal.
Max Willens:
It’s, I feel, fairly probably that the variety of exhibits that each one these companies produce goes to start out dropping, and so these offers are going to be nice for those that can get into author’s rooms, however there can be, I feel fewer writers’ rooms to enter.
Marcus Johnson:
Is the artificial social community coming?
Oscar Orozco:
We must willingly make the selection to decide on between some form of AI characteristic versus speaking to an actual individual, interacting with our social circle, family and friends. I feel that is the excellence we have to make right here and why I feel we can’t change to artificial social networks anytime quickly.
Marcus Johnson:
Can AI assist customer support chatbots?
Rahul Chadha:
I feel it is also good to keep in mind that when prospects are going to work together with a customer support, they’re normally already pissed off. They’re not in mindset. I feel that units the bar fairly excessive for the expertise.
Marcus Johnson:
What will wearable AI tech appear like, and when do most individuals retire and the way a lot have they got saved up? Join me for this episode. We have three individuals. Let’s meet them. We begin with our director of studies enhancing based mostly within the Northern Hemisphere of New York. It’s Rahul Chadha.
Rahul Chadha:
Hey, Marcus. Nice to be right here.
Marcus Johnson:
Hey, fella. We transfer additional south and we run into one in all our administrators of forecasting based mostly in New York City. It’s Oscar Orozco.
Oscar Orozco:
Hello, everybody. Happy to be right here.
Marcus Johnson:
Hey, chap. And you retain going additional and finally you will run right into a gentleman who’s our senior analyst protecting every little thing digital promoting and media residing round Philadelphia, it is Max Willens.
Max Willens:
Yo.
Marcus Johnson:
Bang. There they’re, of us, the three gents who’re becoming a member of us for this episode. What do we have now in retailer for you? We begin with a deal. The writers and the studios have come to an settlement. So what does the deal entail and what occurs subsequent? We then may have the Debate of the Week the place our panel will give us the for and in opposition to arguments from three separate matters, information tales, we’ll debate these, after which we transfer to Dinner Party Data, some random trivia, loads of it. So we’ll attempt to get to that as quick as attainable as a result of it is actually the principle motive individuals tune in. Anyway. We begin after all, with the Story of the Week.
What to make of the writers strike deal. “The Hollywood writers strike is over and so they received huge,” writes Alissa Wilkinson and Emily Stewart of Vox. They defined that on September twenty fourth, after 146 days of labor stoppage, the second-longest strike in Hollywood historical past, the Writer’s Guild of America, that is the author’s facet, and the Alliance of Motion Picture and TV producers, the AMPTP, that is the studios, the writers and the studios reached an settlement. It formally ended two days later. Actors, they’re nonetheless on strike. So that is simply the writers. Actors are nonetheless on strike. This deal between studios and writers.
The deal consists of a lot of issues. I’ll checklist 5 shortly. One, a rise to minimal wages and compensation, thrice what studios initially supplied. Number two, elevated pension and well being fund charges. Number three, enhancements to phrases for size of employment and dimension of writing groups, that had been shrinking quite a bit. Number 4, higher residuals. Think royalties together with international streaming residuals. And quantity 5, phrases for synthetic intelligence with an settlement that does not stop writers or productions from making use of generative AI, however prohibits utilizing software program to scale back or remove writers and their pay. Gents, your takes on the deal.
Max Willens:
There’s additionally the difficulty of compensation, and it is nice that they received these short-term wins, however the actuality too is that with streaming’s economics wanting shakier and shakier for the streaming companies, I ought to say, it is I feel fairly probably that the variety of exhibits that each one these companies produce goes to start out dropping, and so these offers are going to be nice for those that can get into author’s rooms, however there can be, I feel, fewer author’s rooms to enter. So total, I feel it is exhausting to take a look at this as something apart from a win within the short-term, however in case you look additional out, it is more durable to be as unreservedly optimistic.
Oscar Orozco:
Marcus Johnson:
Yeah. Yeah, it is an ideal level. When you are zoomed in, it does appear like a win for one facet, a loss for the opposite, however each of you, gents, you zoomed out from that, which I feel is actually necessary. Daniel Konstantinovic, who writes by way of our briefing, was saying the result of the Hollywood strikes is not nearly actor and author compensation, however about rethinking the present streaming enterprise mannequin. So I do not know, Rahul, is that this mannequin even sustainable? It does appear to some extent they’ve kicked the can down the street.
Rahul Chadha:
I imply, I feel it is sustainable, however I feel we will undergo a proper sizing course of. The mannequin is simply going to have to transform itself in a means the place firms who’re making an attempt to monetize by way of streaming platforms… And in the event that they’re changing income from a linear TV mannequin, it is simply by no means going to hit that mark. They’re going to have to determine what does every little thing appear like on this new world, and I feel we have talked about that they’ll must most likely scale back the content material that they make, and I feel that that is a mandatory a part of them type of proper sizing to it. The market can bear. I feel we’re previous the height TV period and we’re in a spot now the place persons are mainly making an attempt to determine easy methods to make some sum of money from their streaming platforms. I feel the way in which they have been being run beforehand when every little thing was sacrificed for scale is simply unsustainable.
Max Willens:
And once more, that is nice for the those who hit the large time, strike gold with a sequence, however in case you’re somebody who’s making an attempt to type of make a reputation for your self and also you make a present that is type of cool and a few individuals prefer it, however it does not do enormous numbers, however possibly it is a step-up in visibility, you don’t have anything that you could seize onto to indicate to your agent or to indicate to the studio and be like, “Look, I’ve an viewers. Look, individuals care about this.” They simply can both determine to remain on that treadmill just a little longer till they hit an enormous hit or they get worn out and thrown onto the scrap, and I feel that is an actual bummer, particularly contemplating the preliminary promise of this entire new period could be extra selection, extra high quality, extra stuff for individualized audiences, and it simply looks as if that is quickly falling away.
Oscar Orozco:
And Max, I’ve a query for you. I imply, do you assume that the writers, they don’t seem to be higher off in any respect from the place they have been a couple of weeks in the past? I imply, it seems like that is how I’m deciphering it.
Max Willens:
No, completely not. I imply, the truth is that they are getting paid extra, there are minimums being put onto the author’s rooms, there’s some discretion there, however the individuals which can be on this enterprise are positively in higher form than they have been two months in the past, however I simply assume it is nonetheless a really precarious enterprise. Maybe it all the time was going to be that means, however that is my take away from it.
Marcus Johnson:
Mm-hmm. Yeah, one which, I feel, you talked about some model of this mainly whenever you’ve began, Max, however received the battle, you search for, there is a greater conflict happening, loads of different issues nonetheless to determine. I need to come again to one thing Rahul stated by way of proper sizing, as a result of Daniel Konstantinovic, who I discussed earlier was saying one probably final result can be additional value hikes, which will not be welcome contemplating most streaming companies have already elevated costs this 12 months, and a good quantity during the last couple of years. I’m simply a chart right here from the Wall Street Journal displaying Hulu, Max, Netflix, Disney Plus, Peacock, Apple TV+ all with costs going up.
Netflix, in line with Wall Street Journal, have already stated that they’ll be growing their costs beginning with the US and Canada in a couple of months, so that they’re already prepping of us for that improve, and it is as a result of these firms and studios have struggled. The streaming service Max owned by Warner Brothers Discovery, they have been saying they count on the strikes to price it as much as $500 million this 12 months, after which Brooks Barnes and John Koblin of the New York Times noting that analysts have estimated studios will forego as a lot as 1.6 billion in international ticket gross sales for motion pictures that have been initially scheduled to launch this fall, however pushed to subsequent 12 months due to the actors strike.
Max Willens:
Can I simply say, if Netflix prices $25 a month, I’m eliminating it. To me, it is not price that. It’s wonderful to have in case you’re paying 8, 9, 10, 11, $12 as a result of there’s a few foolish issues and possibly yearly they’ve some huge present that I really feel type of culturally obligated to look at, however I do not need to pay $25 a month to have entry to 5 totally different nation’s variations of Is It Cake?. It’s not price that to me, it is not sufficiently top quality, and I feel that that is one factor that’s going to be actually ugly and type of messy as these differing forces crash towards one another.
Marcus Johnson:
That’s the large query, proper? What’s the ceiling? What’s the ceiling for these streaming companies earlier than individuals say, “Enough is sufficient.”? I assumed I noticed some analysis just lately displaying that individuals have dropped not less than one in all their streaming companies from their bundle. Maybe that is extra to do with simply the present local weather and fewer to do with what they’d ordinarily pay for all these streaming companies. But yeah, loads of them beginning to, particularly the type of mid-tier streaming service, beginning to bump up in opposition to that or get near that $20 mark, and possibly that could be a bridge too far for lots of parents.
Oscar Orozco:
I imply, one in all my greatest takeaways was that Netflix was on the backside right here as probably the most impacted out of all of the streaming platforms, and I feel it has just a little bit to do with the excessive costs already. Keep in thoughts, guys, that they’re pushing individuals to those new form of ad-supported tiers as nicely. So I feel it may benefit them there the place the hole widens with ad-supported tiers, which can most likely stay in the same vary by way of value. But this will have an effect on the advert enterprise as nicely, which we did not contact on quite a bit, however I feel that and, as I discussed, the worldwide push all issues to be anxious about transferring ahead.
Marcus Johnson:
Let’s wrap this up earlier than we transfer to the controversy. What’s subsequent for the actors strike negotiations, the half we stated continues to be ongoing? Their union, the Screen Actors Guild, demanding a income sharing cope with the streaming firms and an 11% rise in primary wages, which the studios have to this point rejected. The Economist thinks a couple of extra weeks of negotiation look probably, and so factoring in an analogous ratification course of, issues are unlikely to get again to regular a lot earlier than Thanksgiving in late November, after which that Economist article happening to notice that the issue with that’s that it means a manufacturing crunch on the time when Hollywood is generally winding down with the business on maintain for almost half a 12 months. It says movie and TV schedules in 2024 are wanting relatively naked, so studios will rush to cram in as a lot manufacturing as they’ll earlier than the tip of the 12 months, time operating out to avoid wasting subsequent 12 months’s summer time blockbusters.
All proper, of us. That’s the place we’ll go away the Story of the Week. Let’s transfer now to the Debate of the Week. Today’s section: Make the Case, the place our panel, Rahul, Oscar, and Max current the for and in opposition to arguments for every of the next questions based mostly on three information tales. Two contestants face off per query. Also, the next takes do not essentially mirror the analyst’s private views, their job is to simply current one of the best case regardless and provide goal evaluation only for you.
We begin with Max versus Oscar for query one. “The artificial social community is coming,” suggests Casey Newton of the Verge. What are we speaking about? Well, he thinks that between ChatGPT’s new surprisingly human voice and skill to see objects and Meta’s AI characters, our feeds could also be about to alter perpetually. He affords imaginable the subsequent steps right here, a bot that will get to know your quirks, remembers your life historical past, affords you teaching or remedy, entertains you in whichever means you like. An artificial companion, not not like the actual individuals you encounter throughout the day, solely smarter, extra affected person, extra empathetic and extra out there. So the query is are we heading in the direction of an artificial social community, one the place you are interacting extra with a chatbot than a feed? Max will current the we’ll quickly change to artificial social networks and AI companion. One minute on the clock, make the case.
Max Willens:
So the crux of the argument I’m about to make is that we depend on these platforms to entertain us, proper? That’s mainly why all of us open up Instagram or TikTook or Snapchat on a regular basis, and I feel that so long as these firms make an effort to make these AI help or companions as winsome as attainable, there isn’t any motive why we would not all simply steadily get used to the concept of interacting with an artificial social community. Already once I open up Instagram, increasingly of what I see isn’t content material from my pals, household and acquaintances, however simply random meme accounts that Instagram thinks I’m going to search out entertaining, and AI-generated content material or suggestions or interplay isn’t that distant from that. So I feel that so long as we’re thinking about utilizing this stuff to entertain ourselves, then an artificial social community is a really lifelike chance.
Marcus Johnson:
Very good. Oscar, you’ll be presenting that we can’t change to artificial social networks and AI companion. Make the case.
Oscar Orozco:
You make some good factors there, Max. Sure, we do use these platforms to entertain us, however we select how we need to be entertained, and I feel that is the necessary factor right here. We must willingly make the selection to decide on between some form of AI characteristic versus speaking to an actual individual, interacting with our social circle, family and friends, and I feel that is the excellence we have to make right here and why I feel we can’t change to artificial social networks anytime quickly.
Keep in thoughts, positive, AI will help form the platform itself and I do know builders love the efficiencies that it is inflicting, however by way of the person, I feel we’re far off from selecting that, interacting with an AI bot over an precise individual, far off from doing that. Keep in thoughts persons are creeped out by AI nonetheless. They’re anxious about privateness issues and sharing an excessive amount of. There was a ballot from Reuters not that way back, 4,400 adults. 61% stated they consider AI may threaten the way forward for civilization and greater than two-thirds are anxious in regards to the detrimental penalties of AI infiltrating our lives. So I do not see this taking place anytime quickly.
Max Willens:
But it is received jokes and that is all.
Oscar Orozco:
I feel your factors are [inaudible 00:19:26].
Marcus Johnson:
Rahul, any ideas on this, mate?
Rahul Chadha:
I imply, I feel we talked just a little bit about the way forward for social networks a pair episodes in the past and it boils all the way down to a bizarre semantic subject the place it is like Max talked in regards to the expectation and Oscar did too, that whenever you’re on a social community, initially have been interacting with family and friends, however it’s more and more changing into a distribution channel for leisure successfully. So I feel it actually boils all the way down to what do you need to describe as a social community today?
Marcus Johnson:
Yeah. Yeah, I may see individuals interacting with social networks, with a private assistant to assist serve them up that content material and being like, “Oh, something new?” And it is like, “Oh. Well, this stuff simply got here by way of.” It’s like, “No, I’m extra searching for such a content material,” and it serves these issues up. So I may see some type of mixture of the 2 really going hand-in-hand. All proper, let’s go away that query there. Let’s transfer to query two. We have Oscar versus Rahul. Customer service is what we’re speaking about. “Customer service is getting worse and so are prospects, however what may repair it?” questions The Economist.
Oscar Orozco:
I do know everyone seems to be shocked to listen to that I’m saying can right here once I stated that we’d not have artificial social networks, however let me clarify why. There’s two reasons-
Marcus Johnson:
You’re all over.
Oscar Orozco:
I feel talking to the efficiencies of it, firms, after all, as soon as these bots are skilled and more proficient at coping with sure conditions, they’ll be throughout this, if not already. And I feel from the buyer’s standpoint, all they really need is a chatbot or a person that may present an answer. So I feel if these ChatGPT bots, customer support bots can do this, they’ve the facility to offer an answer, I actually do not assume individuals will care whether or not it is an actual individual they’re speaking to or some form of machine.
Marcus Johnson:
Rahul, generative AI chatbots, like ChatGPT, can not help with our customer support woes. One minute on the clock, make the case.
Rahul Chadha:
I imply the truth is firms fascinated with utilizing this type of AI are usually not motivated by creating this superlative buyer expertise, they simply need to lower your expenses, and anybody who’s gotten caught in an countless loop with an automatic system once they simply need to speak to an individual can attest to how irritating that have is, and I do not assume it actually issues if it is a telephone system, a chatbot or AI. It’s type of like decide your poison scenario. It’s actually simply one other hoop. Like Oscar stated, individuals desire a decision, however in my expertise you do not normally get a decision for an advanced subject from any of these companies. And I feel it is also good to keep in mind that when prospects are going to work together with a customer support, they’re normally already pissed off. They’re not in mindset. I feel that units the bar fairly excessive for the expertise. And I feel the bar is being set extremely low. Marcus, you stated that the expectation is can it make this, quote, much less terrible? That’s a reasonably low bar. Less terrible does not essentially imply good.
Marcus Johnson:
Two issues I took away from the article. One, prospects are much less glad. The Economist was saying after rising steadily for 20 years, the American Customer Satisfaction Index, a barometer of contentment started climbing in 2018, though it has edged up from its pandemic nadir, it has shed all of its positive aspects since 2006, so prospects extra aggravated, possibly as a result of they simply have much less endurance as a result of the second level right here was prospects are extra unreasonable. The Economist additionally noting prospects for his or her half in not serving to. In this 12 months’s National Customer Rage Survey, one other gauge of sentiment, 17% of consumers admitted to being uncivil of their interactions with companies. That’s simply the sincere ones. Max, any ideas right here?
Max Willens:
I usually share Oscar’s opinion. I really feel like working in a name heart is a reasonably depressing job and it sometimes attracts individuals who do not do it for very lengthy, and so typically whenever you wind up getting on the telephone with someone, they’re inexperienced, flustered, possibly not adequately skilled, in some instances, possibly coping with a little bit of a language barrier. I’m nonetheless remembering this one time I needed to name my insurance coverage firm customer support as a result of I had been denied protection for one thing, and there was an extended pause whereas I used to be on the telephone with this man who clearly didn’t communicate to English as his first language and I stated, “What’s happening over there?” He stated, “I’m sorry, sir. I’m busy looking for a solution to deny your declare,” and I simply received livid listening to this and I noticed as he was speaking that he meant to say one thing else, however I simply thought generative AI is rarely going to do this, and so it is most likely for one of the best that we transfer on this route.
Marcus Johnson:
I’m making an attempt to break your life. Can you give me a second please?
Oscar Orozco:
Yeah, means too direct.
Marcus Johnson:
Like once they say, “Do you thoughts if I put you on maintain?” Yes. Yes, I do, however you are going to do it anyway. Let’s transfer to query three. Max versus Rahul for this final one. I’m speaking about wearable AI tech. Tech startup Humane just lately demoed an AI-powered wearable the corporate is constructing as a substitute for smartphones. As Jacob Kastrenakes of the Verge describes, the AI pin gadget is a small black puck that slips into your breast pocket with a digicam, projector and speaker protruding the highest. The gadget enables you to name somebody utilizing your palm because the keypad, provides you a abstract of latest emails, calendar occasions and messages on command, and may inform you whether or not it is suitable for eating sure meals objects in case you maintain up the merchandise in entrance of it, and it is basing this by yourself particular person allergy symptoms.
Apple’s former chief design officer, Jony Ive, and OpenAI’s CEO, Sam Altman, are additionally reportedly trying to collaborate on constructing some type of AI {hardware} gadget in line with the knowledge. The query is will these kinds of AI powered wearable gadgets exchange the smartphone? Max is up first. Wearable AI tech will turn out to be mass adopted and likewise may exchange the smartphone. One minute on the clock, make the case.
Max Willens:
So I really feel like on the subject of emergent expertise, you want a type of key group of evangelists to actually get it to take root, and I feel that for a wearable like Humane or the pin or no matter factor that Jony Ive and OpenAI give you, it will likely be two very highly effective, very influential teams and people are tech executives and fussy elder Zoomer mother and father. I feel lots of people are form of very preoccupied and anxious about how a lot display time their kids get, however in case you may give your child a Humane, which primarily affords the entire issues that oldsters need in smartphones for his or her kids, which is a capability to entry their location, a capability for his or her baby to get info, a capability for them to speak with mother and father, you get all of that from a Humane, however you don’t get is an attention-sucking productivity-sapping, presentness-depleting display. So I feel that these causes alone are main motive why this stuff will not less than get a glance by plenty of totally different individuals, and an opportunity to supplant the smartphone.
Marcus Johnson:
Rahul, wearable AI tech will not turn out to be mass adopted and may’t exchange smartphones. Make the case.
Rahul Chadha:
I imply, I feel wearables face a hen and egg drawback. People will not undertake a tool that does not have a sturdy ecosystem of purposes and no one needs to construct apps for gadgets that nobody makes use of. I feel one of many challenges I all the time take into consideration once I take into consideration wearables is that really the shortage of a display implies that app builders cannot depend on a digital advert income stream simply. I do not know the way individuals get served advertisements, and I feel within the type of gestational part of wearables, builders want another type of income stream to lean on.
I feel the opposite problem is that proper now wearables have actually slim purposes, like for medical functions, and I feel different makes use of are actually about novelty and never practicality. You can use your Apple Watch to area a telephone name, however I imply, I feel in case you do, you may nicely simply purchase a smartphone holster as a result of I feel your sense of self-dignity has possibly been thrown out the window. But I imply, in all seriousness, I feel it makes it actually tough to see a future for these wearables and not using a sturdy system of purposes that may assist them and drive mass adoption.
Marcus Johnson:
It is difficult to tug off the smartphone holster. I’ve by no means seen anybody rocking one and gone, “Nailed it.” Oscar, I may see you as a smartphone holster individual. Any ideas right here? Would you put on an AI pin, Oscar?
Oscar Orozco:
I imply, I do not even personal a sensible speaker or a smartwatch.
Marcus Johnson:
I assumed you have been going to say smartphone then.
Oscar Orozco:
I do have a smartphone. Very costly one, so I actually hope we do not have to switch that anytime quickly with one thing new. But yeah, it appears actually far off. I must additionally add to what Rahul stated, Google and Apple are so entrenched in our simply expertise and our gadgets and every little thing we do, I’d additionally add it must come from one in all these two guys for it to actually catch on as nicely.
Marcus Johnson:
Mm-hmm. Yeah. Yeah, after which do they need to break a wonderfully good income stream? Probably not. All proper, gents. A really good section. Let’s transfer to the final one of many day. It’s time now for Dinner Party Data. This is the a part of the present the place we inform you about probably the most attention-grabbing factor we have realized this week. Let’s begin with Rahul.
Rahul Chadha:
Yeah, I received some enjoyable factoids about Lego. It was really began within the early Thirties by a Danish carpenter named, and apologies to Danish audio system on the market, I need to say Ole. I’d say Olay, however I do know that is actually unsuitable.
Oscar Orozco:
It’s positively not that.
Rahul Chadha:
Kirk Christiansen.
Marcus Johnson:
We do not know what it’s, however we positively know what it is not.
Rahul Chadha:
So Mr. Christiansen needed to transition away from house development and furnishings making as a result of waning demand and he as an alternative pivoted to creating wood toys. Lego did not really begin utilizing plastics till 1947 and it was really a warehouse hearth in 1960 that pressured the corporate to completely transition away from wood toys and to embrace plastic ones. Lego flirted with chapter within the early aughts, however rebounded due to its partnerships with present franchises like Star Wars and partly by making a profitable sequence of films, if anyone remembers the Lego Movie, or… I really feel like I’ve aged out of the demographic for the Lego Batman and I need to say Ninjago motion pictures, if that is how that stated.
Marcus Johnson:
I’ve heard they’re good.
Rahul Chadha:
I do not doubt they is perhaps nice leisure, I’ve simply by no means seen any of that stuff. But it is fairly spectacular, final 12 months Lego had an annual income of about $9 billion and boasted working revenue margins that exceeded the luxurious conglomerate LVMH and luxurious area automotive producer Ferrari. So it is fairly unbelievable what they’ve performed.
Max Willens:
Not dangerous for a second act.
Marcus Johnson:
You say he moved from… He was in development and that sort dried up, so he moved over to small wood toys. Can you think about his companion being like, “What the hell are you doing? Go get an actual job.” “No, I simply really feel like I’m onto one thing right here.” “Get out of my home.” All proper. Yeah, it labored out, so truthful play to Mr. Christiansen. Is that what his final title is?
Rahul Chadha:
That’s proper. I imply, I do not know. Let’s ask a Danish individual the way you’re speculated to pronounce that too.
Marcus Johnson:
Mr. Lego. Oscar, you are up.
Oscar Orozco:
All proper, that was one. Love Legos. So mine, Marcus, I feel you are going to love this one. You do commonly, not less than when I’m on, cowl something car associated, however I simply noticed this research at present, it is from iSeeCars.com. They revealed the newest replace to their annual survey on the most well-liked automotive colours on the markets. So does anybody personal a automotive proper now? What colour are your vehicles?
Marcus Johnson:
We had this one.
Oscar Orozco:
This is new. It’s been up to date.
Marcus Johnson:
We had this every week in the past. Has it been up to date since final week?
Oscar Orozco:
Stop. Really?
Marcus Johnson:
Most fashionable automotive colours, proper? Is that what you are doing?
Oscar Orozco:
Yeah. Did you actually?
Marcus Johnson:
It’s black and white. I feel white’s primary.
Oscar Orozco:
Well, you have coated this however, as a result of it was new… Oh, gosh. Okay. I used to be going to speak in regards to the replace.
Max Willens:
White is primary? That’s shocking.
Oscar Orozco:
It is white.
Marcus Johnson:
Of course it is white. What are you doing proper now? Did you simply hearken to final week’s episode and go, “You know what? I’ll use that.”
Oscar Orozco:
I didn’t, man. I assumed we coated this months in the past. Hey, this occurs. This occurs. What else did I’ve? I may most likely pull something-
Marcus Johnson:
Is it simply automotive colours, or is there anything within the survey?
Oscar Orozco:
There is one thing else, however it’s associated to the automotive. Give me a second. Hold on.
Marcus Johnson:
Wait, we simply coated colours, so possibly there’s extra within the survey that we have not coated.
Oscar Orozco:
Nah, it is all colours. It’s all colours. Forget it. I assumed there was one thing down right here, however it’s all colours.
Marcus Johnson:
Don’t you recycle materials right here, Oscar. I will not stand for it.
Oscar Orozco:
I swear I did not assume it was. Okay, I would have the option to-
Marcus Johnson:
Do you need me to go together with Max first?
Oscar Orozco:
Yeah, yeah. Maybe I can pull one thing. Great.
Marcus Johnson:
Okay. All proper. Max, you are up as a result of Oscar’s simply utilizing outdated materials.
Oscar Orozco:
Go forward.
Max Willens:
So my ceremonial dinner information this week pertains to fashionable live performance excursions. So earlier this week got here the information that Taylor Swift isn’t going to be the one international star to have a live performance film come out this 12 months, Beyonce’s will come out in early December, and there is been loads of actually complicated information come out about how a lot cash all these excursions are making. There’s some that say it should be over a billion {dollars}, there’s some that say it is extra like $500 million, there’s some that say that Beyonce’s goes to wind up having extra financial impression than Taylor Swift’s, and others say the other, however the form of simple takeaway is that as of most likely the tip of this 12 months, Beyonce and Taylor Swift are going to wind up being the 2 highest grossing live performance excursions of all time.
And I assumed, “Well, okay. Who’s three by way of 10? Let me go determine that out,” and so I discovered some information from Billboard and so I’ll provide the checklist so as ranging from three taking place. So it is Elton John, Ed Sheeran, YouTube, Coldplay twice, Harry Styles, Guns & Roses and the Rolling Stones twice, and there is a bunch about this that I assumed was actually attention-grabbing. First being that this checklist is mainly nothing however British artists, Beyonce and Taylor Swift approaching mainly means there are actually a whopping three American artists on this checklist and relaxation are Brits.
Marcus Johnson:
Is the second takeaway that Coldplay have been on tour for the final 50 years? Go house.
Rahul Chadha:
Yeah, I used to be going to say, I really feel like Elton John’s been on his farewell tour for 10 years now.
Max Willens:
COVID is a giant motive for this as a result of each of you might be proper. The Elton John tour that received onto this checklist was his final checklist or was his final tour and it went on due to COVID interruptions for over three years. There’s additionally a tour on right here that I feel took 5 years to finish by Roger Waters, and the opposite factor that is price declaring right here is that each one of those excursions occurred within the final six years, which says an terrible lot about how costly a extremely in demand live performance ticket is. And lastly, I simply need to [inaudible 00:35:40] to all of you that put the Rolling Stones on this checklist twice within the final six years. What’s unsuitable with you? They’re so outdated. They are so outdated and so they have been doing this for a lot time. Just do one thing else. Take your youngsters to Margaritaville, or your grandkids or one thing. Just cease going to see the Rolling Stones, for God’s sake.
Oscar Orozco:
What about simply so many different nice artists on the market? It’s type of what you are saying. It’s like when will we see one thing new? Because it is all the time the identical artists time and again. Come on.
Rahul Chadha:
I’m shocked that there weren’t extra Boomer period acts on there, as a result of I simply assumed they have been those with probably the most disposable revenue and the bands just like the Rolling Stones have an countless nicely of nostalgia to feed on.
Marcus Johnson:
Yeah, I really feel like Elton’s actually milking it on this goodbye. Goodbye once more.
Max Willens:
I’m actually going.
Marcus Johnson:
And encore. He’s again. Oscar, something, mate? Anything new?
Oscar Orozco:
Cars and colours. No, I’m joking.
Marcus Johnson:
You’ve received to be kidding me.
Oscar Orozco:
Something just a little totally different. No. All proper. So I’ve an attention-grabbing one for you guys. I did pull this a bit in the past. It was after I got here again from some journey and I used to be jet-lagged. I assumed it was actually attention-grabbing. It was a research on large pandas as nicely. People love pandas.
Marcus Johnson:
We’ve performed this.
Oscar Orozco:
Stop.
Marcus Johnson:
Oh. No, I’m kidding. We have not performed this.
Oscar Orozco:
Oh, cease it. Come on, man. Don’t mess with me.
Marcus Johnson:
Sorry. As you have been saying, large pandas.
Oscar Orozco:
I imply, it was in CNN and I swear I learn the articles, so it is attainable. Okay, again to it. This is on large pandas dwelling in captivity who could possibly be affected by jet lag, which I assumed was type of humorous once more as a result of I used to be very jet-lagged getting back from my journey to Spain. So it was a research. Scientists went about determining whether or not animals which can be in captivity all around the world, several types of environments and issues like this, and what the research discovered was no shock, that it might have an effect, after all, on these animals that aren’t used to sure climates, that what they primarily really feel is one thing just like what people would really feel with jet lag once they journey far and their hours are off and so they’re not getting sufficient sleep, sleeping at bizarre hours.
So this was from the journal Frontiers in Psychology, and what they primarily additionally discovered was pandas, type of like people, have a circadian clock, which suggests it is an inside physique clock that runs roughly in 24 hour cycles. That’s most likely why issues like this impression them. We all take cues from the setting, so when there are points with the setting not matching with what the species is used to, it might have these results, like jet lag does. So it was just about with something lively, meals, getting meals and even sleeping patterns have been impacted, and it is issues like daylight, temperatures, issues like this, which may have an impact. So one thing for I’d say zookeepers to remember once they’re deciding on what sort of animals to have within the zoo. So I assumed this was attention-grabbing.
Marcus Johnson:
I’m shocked that there is not an possibility. I feel there will be an possibility sooner or later if you wish to go to Australia and you do not actually need to… It’s an extended flight, you do not need to be awake that lengthy, you’ve gotten the choice to take an anesthetic mainly, and so they’ll put you to sleep only for the flight. Don’t you assume that… Would you, guys?
Rahul Chadha:
I assumed that is what Ambien and Xanax was for.
Marcus Johnson:
But I imply one where-
Max Willens:
Yeah, that is what the bar cart’s for.
Oscar Orozco:
But additionally I assume it might solely assist possibly. A little bit in line with this, the physique would simply be like, “Where am I and why is it darkish proper now? Why is it so scorching?”
Marcus Johnson:
Yeah, it would not assist a lot for jet lag.
Oscar Orozco:
It won’t assist as a lot. And in order that was one other takeaway from this, yeah.
Marcus Johnson:
You would skip the precise flight half, however yeah, the jet lag would nonetheless pummel you. You stated you have been affected by jet lag getting back from Spain?
Oscar Orozco:
Yes, terribly.
Marcus Johnson:
Oscar lives in Portugal, for folk who’re listening. It’s like an hour flight.
Oscar Orozco:
I want. I want. No, it sucks. Not nice.
Marcus Johnson:
Yeah, it is brutal. All proper, of us. I’ve received one for you, however there’s quite a bit. So let’s have a look at how a lot we will get by way of. So when do most individuals retire and the way a lot have they got saved up? So very first thing, the typical retirement age is 66 for Americans in line with Gallup, which is up from age 60 within the Nineteen Nineties, in line with the Social Security Administration, SSA. The second factor right here, you might want far more cash than you’d assume.
According to 2022 CDC survey, the precise imply retirement age is 61. So with present life expectancy at 76, individuals can count on 15 years of retirement or much more. A 65-year-old girl has a 50% likelihood of constructing it to age 87. So that is 26 years of retirement. A person has a couple of years much less, so probably 24 years of retirement, in line with the SSA. A 3rd factor, lower than 40% of people are actively taking part in a 401k plan in line with the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. However, 75% of non-retired individuals, non-retired adults, have some type of retirement financial savings, notes the Fed. The drawback is barely 40% of those of us assume their retirement financial savings are on observe, partly as a result of almost half of individuals 40 to 80 have taken cash out of their retirement plan in line with TD Ameritrade.
A number of extra for you. Where retirement revenue comes from. 2023 Gallup Survey, 48% of people that have not retired but are funding retirement by way of their 401k, however the next share, 59% of precise retirees say they’re funding their retirement through social safety. That’s almost double the variety of these retiree of us who’re utilizing their 401k. 40% of people that get Social Security depend on it for over half of their revenue. For 1 / 4 of married individuals, married retirees, and half of single retirees, social safety accounts for not less than 90%, virtually all of their revenue. Quarter of married retirees and half of single retirees.
How a lot do individuals get is my fifth level right here. How a lot do individuals get in Social Security in 2022. The common month-to-month social safety profit for retired employees was 1800 bucks. That’s 22,000 a 12 months. That’s solely barely greater than you’ll make in case you have been above the nationwide poverty line, which is $18,000 for a household of two. A powerful motive that 15% of individuals over 65 reside in poverty. That’s double the nationwide common of 8%. We talked about individuals dwelling 15-plus years after they retire. Government information additionally exhibits that just about 70% of people who attain 65 will want long-term care sooner or later. The median price of assisted dwelling facility is 5 grand a month in line with General Worth Financial Inc.
Two extra for you. How are Americans doing with their retirement financial savings thus far? PWC report exhibits that the median retirement financial savings for individuals 55 to 64, 55, 64 is $120,000. So that is supplying you with 60 grand a 12 months for 2 years, 40 grand a 12 months for 3 years earlier than that disappears. People youthful than that, 35 to 44, they’ve slightly below 40, 4-0, thousand, in line with 2017 report from PWC. Also, that information was backed up by a 2017 report from the Government Accountability Office. And the ultimate factor right here is retirement may really be a foul factor anyway. National Bureau of Economic Research revealed that full retirement results in a 5 to 16% improve in difficulties related to mobility and every day actions. People are doing much less so they’re doing even much less and doing even much less. A 5 to six% improve in sickness situations and a six to 9% decline in psychological well being.
Oscar Orozco:
Oof.
Max Willens:
That’s probably the most miserable ceremonial dinner information I’ve ever heard in my complete life.
Marcus Johnson:
You’re welcome.
Oscar Orozco:
That was robust. That was robust. There’s so many takeaways from that. I imply, simply the final one. So many individuals are usually not prepared for retirement, I feel that is the issue. The Man would love you to assume, “Keep working,” however it’s simply that individuals, they don’t seem to be used to having that further time or not ready for what comes after. So I feel that is virtually the largest takeaway for everybody listening.
Marcus Johnson:
Yeah, and a few individuals simply aren’t allowed to. So my dad tried to retire the opposite day and my mother informed him, “No.” I’m kidding. She really stated, “Let’s discuss it in a couple of years.” That’s all we have time for this episode. Thank you a lot to my company. Thank you to Oscar.
Oscar Orozco:
Thanks, Marcus. Thanks for having me.
Marcus Johnson:
Of course, sir. Thank you to Rahul.
Rahul Chadha:
Always a pleasure. Thanks, Marcus.
Marcus Johnson:
Yes, certainly. And thanks to Max.
Max Willens:
Thanks Marcus.
Marcus Johnson:
Thank you, mate. And thanks to Victoria who edits the present, James who copyedits it, and Stuart who runs the group. Thanks to everybody for listening in. You can discover us on Instagram, @Insiderintelligence, one phrase, for all of the behind the scenes content material you’ll be able to presumably need. We’ll see you guys hopefully on Monday for the Behind the Numbers Daily eMarketer Podcast made attainable by Intuit MailChimp. Happy weekends. Unless you are taking part in me in fantasy this week. I would like this. I would like this one. Oscar, how are you doing?
Oscar Orozco:
Terrible.
Marcus Johnson:
Are you 0-4 now? Don’t say it.
Oscar Orozco:
Yes, man.
Marcus Johnson:
0-4.
Rahul Chadha:
Oh, my God.
Oscar Orozco:
Never was I 0-2, and I’m 0-4. It’s a catastrophe. I do not deserve it. I do not deserve this.
Marcus Johnson:
What do you imply you do not deserve this? You by no means get me that will help you with the draft. You carry this on your self.
Oscar Orozco:
Could be. Could be, man.
Marcus Johnson:
You’re the equal of the Panthers.