SINCE IT BEGAN more than six weeks ago, Israel’s war in Gaza has had two main objectives: to remove Hamas from power in the enclave, and to free the hostages Hamas abducted during its murderous rampage on October 7th. At times, those goals have been in conflict. Air strikes meant to damage Hamas’s network of underground tunnels, for instance, risked killing the hostages held in those same tunnels.
The war now faces perhaps its biggest contradiction yet. On November 22nd, after weeks of indirect negotiations, the Israeli cabinet approved a deal that would see Hamas free 50 women and children from the roughly 240 hostages held in Gaza. But Israel will have to temporarily halt its war—and will face strong pressure not to resume it.
The prisoner swap could begin as early as November 23rd. It will take place in phases over four days, with Hamas releasing around a dozen captives each night. They will be sent from Gaza to Egypt, and then back to Israel. For each hostage freed, Israel will release three Palestinian prisoners (also women and children) from its jails.
Both sides have committed to observe a four-day truce during the agreement. Israel will also permit 300 trucks carrying humanitarian aid to enter Gaza each day during that period—a significant increase over the past month, when the daily average was just 45 trucks. The White House welcomed the deal, with President Joe Biden warning “it is important that all aspects of this deal be fully implemented”.
Polls in recent weeks have shown Israelis divided over such a scheme. A survey by the Israel Democracy Institute, a think-tank, found that 45% of Israeli Jews opposed a prisoner swap while 40% supported it. Right-wing lawmakers criticised the deal before and during the late-night cabinet meeting at which it was approved. Itamar Ben-Gvir, the national-security minister, called it a “very, very big mistake”. Hamas wants to exploit those divisions. The limited number of hostages it agreed to release and its demand for a temporary truce are meant to squeeze the Israeli government.
Negotiations began almost immediately after the October 7th massacre. Diplomatic pressure on Qatar, which hosts some of the Hamas leadership, led to two early agreements to set free four women (including a pair with dual American and Israeli citizenship). Hamas received nothing in return. Those deals showed that Qatar could serve as a go-between with the group.
On October 27th, however, four days after the second pair of women was released, Israel launched its ground offensive in Gaza. That reshaped the negotiations. Hamas indicated that it was prepared to release a larger number of hostages—but only in return for a pause in fighting. At that point it became a question of numbers, with Israel unwilling to suspend the war for anything less than 100 captives. Hamas officials in Qatar and Lebanon signalled their initial agreement. But it soon became clear that Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader in Gaza, was unwilling to accept that number. He stopped answering his phone for days.
The Israeli war cabinet was also split. Some members wanted to continue negotiating over a smaller number; others thought Israel should press ahead with its ground offensive and wait for Hamas to soften its position. Binyamin Netanyahu, the prime minister, failed to come down on either side of the debate. It took goading from both the families of hostages and from the Biden administration to convince Israel to accept a scaled-down deal.
Under the terms of the agreement, Hamas also has the option of offering to release more hostages at the end of the four-day period. Each ten additional captives it sets free will buy another 24 hours of truce. The fear in Israel is that this will give Mr Sinwar some control over events. The Israeli army has sent four divisions, more than 10,000 soldiers, into northern Gaza to destroy Hamas’s military infrastructure. The timing of the truce means they have yet to finish their operations. More crucially, the army also has yet to start a campaign in southern Gaza, where Israel believes the leaders of Hamas—along with almost the entire population of Gaza—have fled.
The pause will give Hamas fighters, many of them holed up in tunnels, a chance to regroup and replenish their supplies. Israel will also face pressure to extend the truce, both from some Western allies, who face political tumult at home, and from the relatives of those hostages still in captivity. A few days of calm could give the world a more detailed picture of the humanitarian disaster in Gaza, which would add to the international outcry.
Still, for Israel, both of its war objectives remain intact: a temporary truce intended to facilitate a prisoner swap does not mean a permanent halt to the fight against Hamas. “The war is continuing, and the war will continue until we achieve all of our goals,” Mr Netanyahu said before the cabinet vote. There are also no signs that America will press Israel to stop. Much of the world is united in calling for a permanent ceasefire—but not Mr Biden, who argues it would leave Hamas intact to menace Israel again.
For Hamas, meanwhile, survival is victory: it need not defeat the Israeli army, merely endure until a ceasefire. This war is more ferocious than anything that came before. The hostages are Hamas’s greatest leverage over Israel, and it will continue using them to exploit the unavoidable tension in Israel’s war plans.■
Stay on top of our defence and international security coverage with The War Room, our weekly subscriber-only newsletter.