THe is warning dire, its implications almost biblical. Just before midnight on October 12th, Israel told the United Nations that the whole of northern Gaza, home to roughly 1.1 million people, should be evacuated within 24 hours. It then issued the same ultimatum directly to Gazans, telling them to flee south of Wadi Gaza, a riverbed that bisects the territory. “You will be able to return to Gaza City only when another announcement allowing it is made,” the army said in a statement.
What started as an unspeakable crime on October 7th, when Palestinian militants crossed the border and murdered more than 1,300 Israelis, most of them civilians, may now lead to an unimaginable catastrophe in Gaza. “The United Nations considers it impossible for such a movement to take place without devastating humanitarian consequences,” says Stéphane Dujarric, a UN spokesman.
The Israeli edict is probably a prelude to increased aerial bombardment, which has already killed more than 1,500 Gazans over the past week, and perhaps limited special-forces raids to hunt militant leaders. Israel has spent the week preparing for what appears to be a major ground invasion, mobilizing 360,000 reservists and moving armor and other equipment to staging posts in the south of Israel. But army sources say it may be several more days before Israel goes ahead with its attack plan. They also acknowledge the exodus will take longer than a day: “We understand it won’t take 24 hours,” says Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, an army spokesman.
Hamas, the militant group that controls Gaza and carried out the October 7th attack, called the Israeli statement “fake propaganda” and urged Palestinians to stay put. Some may be unable to leave. Others may decide not to. Most of the 2m people in Gaza are descended from refugees displaced during Israel’s 1948 war of independence; now they are being told to accept another displacement.
Even if many Palestinians do wish to flee, the exodus will be a logistical nightmare. Refugee camps in northern Gaza, such as Shati and Jabaliya, are among the most densely populated places in the world, warrens of cramped houses and narrow alleys with more than 50,000 people per square kilometer. Evacuating them would take time.
The distance from the north of Gaza City to the southern half of the territory is not far, around 14km. But only two roads run the length of Gaza, one on the coast and another inland. Both may have been damaged by Israeli air strikes (there have been reports of bombing near the coastal road).
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America and some Arab countries are pushing Mr. Sisi to change his mind. Antony Blinken, the American secretary of state, plans to visit Egypt this weekend as part of a six-country regional tour. They may offer Egypt incentives to relent—and scenes of desperation in Gaza will add to the pressure.
But the reluctance to accept Palestinian refugees runs deep. There is no timeline for the Israeli offensive in Gaza. No one knows when civilians would be allowed to return, or how many would even have homes to return to. It is not only Egypt that worries about a long displacement. Palestinians have the same fear: that fleeing for their lives will mean forever leaving those lives behind.■