The Gaza war has been the central focus in Israel and has captured the attention of the world since October 7. The conclusion of this war will have lasting implications for the region. But it is expected to wrap up within the next three to five weeks.
However, the recent assassination of Sayyed Reza Mousavi, a senior commander in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), in an alleged Israeli airstrike near Damascus, and an attempted terror attack on an Israeli embassy in India by Iranian proxies, are part of a shadow war with a history of decades, which is likely to continue for many more years.
While the outcome of the Gaza war and its aftermath may shape the future of Israel in the next five years, the ongoing shadow war with the Islamic Republic may be the dominant theme for the next 50 years.
Mousavi played a significant role in coordinating the movement of weapons from Tehran to proxies in Syria. His death is considered to be the highest profile killing of an Iranian in years.
Mousavi was also known to be close to Qasem Soleimani, the former head of the Quds Force, who was killed by a US drone in January 2020.
Although Israel, the United States, and Iran have all denied a direct connection between the Iranian government and the October 7 Hamas invasion of Israel, the Islamic Republic’s support for Hamas and Hezbollah is well-documented.
On the other hand, there have been various incidents and attacks attributed to Israel in response to Iran’s actions.
Whether these attacks were carried out by Israel or not, it’s clear that there is an ongoing shadow conflict between the two nations, with each side engaging in covert operations and retaliation.
Iran’s recent attempted attack on the Israeli embassy in India is just one example of how this shadow war is being fought. This pattern of covert actions and attempts to escalate tensions between the two countries is likely to continue in the years to come.
It’s evident that the shadow war between Israel and Iran is a long-term, persistent conflict that shows no signs of abating in the near future.