Iran has been leading the conflict against Israel for over a year, starting with increased threats in the West Bank in 2022 through Palestinian Islamic Jihad. After empowering this proxy group and stepping in where Palestinian security forces failed in Jenin, Iran then turned its attention to other fronts.
Iran’s goal has been to unify various arenas against Israel, bringing together militias and proxies in Gaza, the West Bank, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and other locations. Iran has succeeded in involving most of these arenas in the conflict against Israel.
For example, in 2021, Iran indicated the growing threat posed by Iraqi militias using drones and also strengthened groups in Syria beyond Hezbollah. This move aimed to bring Palestinian threats into Lebanon to support Hezbollah while providing plausible deniability for their attacks. Essentially, if rockets were fired over Passover 2023, the narrative would be that “a Palestinian militant group fired rockets.”
Iran put its plan into action after October 7 when Hamas attacked Israel in an unprecedented surprise attack. Iran brought Hezbollah into the conflict and mobilized the Houthis, leveraging the assets they already had in these countries.
For instance, the Shahed kamikaze drones had been seen in Yemen, and Precision Guided Munitions were already being moved to Lebanon. “Killer drone” teams were also present in Syria since 2018. Iran had attempted to move air defenses into Syria in 2018 in anticipation of escalation.
With all the pieces in place, Iran then set them into action on October 8. As we approach 90 days or three months into the war, the question now is, what is Iran’s next plan.
Iran’s next move
Iran has been dictating the tempo of the attacks and sought to block the Red Sea with the help of the Houthis. The US responded by sending a new task force to safeguard the freedom of navigation. Iran aimed to involve Hezbollah in the conflict, prompting the US to send an aircraft carrier on October 7 to deter Iran and its proxies.
Israel has focused on Gaza and responded proportionately on the northern border to Hezbollah threats. However, Hezbollah has suffered significant losses since October 8, with around 120 fighters killed. This is a considerable number for Hezbollah, which prides itself on its individual fighters. Meanwhile, the Houthis have not publicly reported any losses, and the militias in Iraq and Syria remain intact.
Iran has faced some setbacks, including the killing of one of its key IRGC officers in Syria. However, as of December 31, Iran is still considering its next moves while the Houthi threats persist, targeting shipping in the Red Sea and coordinating attacks through pro-Iranian militias in Syria and Iraq.
US defense is having an effect
The US has made significant strides in downing missiles over the Red Sea, testing its air defenses against missiles and drones. On December 31, US forces successfully thwarted an attempt to target a commercial ship in the Red Sea, showcasing the impact of US intervention.
The Houthi media continues to attempt attacks in the Red Sea, but the US responses have proved effective. With Israel transitioning to a new phase in Gaza and the Iraqi and Syrian militias facing local problems, all eyes are on Hezbollah and Iran’s next moves. Despite the continued Houthi threats, the US role has made a significant impact in the region.