Market participants appear to have widely subscribed to the notion that the Israel-Hamas war will remain largely confined to Gaza and do not present a threat to shipments of Middle East crude supplies
“However, we still see a clear and present danger that this will become a wider regional conflict, with three flashpoints posing particular contagion concerns”
1. Houthi attacks on shipping
- there are indications that the US and the UK are preparing a larger military operation against the Houthis in Yemen
- a key question is whether Iran will remain a bystander
2. Lebanon and Hezbollah
- An expansion of the conflict into Lebanon would present a “clear pathway” to a wider regional war given Iran’s extremely close operational relationship with Hezbollah.
- A more direct Iranian role in the war would sharply increase the threat to regional energy supplies…due to its ability to curtail traffic through the Strait of Hormuz
3. Iran-backed militias have fired hundreds of rockets at bases housing US troops and areas near US personnel in Iraq and Syria
- “We do not know whether President Biden shares his predecessor’s kinetic redline over the loss of American life. However, we believe that if continuing assaults by Iran-backed forces lead to significant American casualties, Washington could find itself drawn back into another round of active fighting in Iraq.”
Strait of Hormuz, at its narrowest point is only 21 miles wide, while the width of the shipping lane in either direction is just two miles and separated by a two-mile buffer zone. It’s the world’s most sensitive oil-transportation choke point.