Analysis: Escalating conflicts and geopolitical shifts have significantly affected the region last year, and what trends are likely to define the Middle East region in 2024? The year ended with Israel waging a war on Gaza, which has killed 22,000 Palestinians and injured 57,000 others. This crisis will likely continue attracting international attention, potentially overshadowing other global issues, such as Ukraine. Arab states are concerned about the crisis, and diplomatic efforts led by Egypt and Qatar are attempting to de-escalate the situation and mediate a ceasefire. However, the crisis has spread to the southern Red Sea, posing significant risks to the region. There are several important geopolitical trends to look out for in 2024, including the impact of the Gaza war, Syria’s rehabilitation in the Arab world, Saudi-Iranian relations, and the potential rise of a new Iranian supreme leader.
The issue of Palestine remains crucial in shaping Arab societies, and the Palestinian cause continues to mobilize citizens in the region. However, this mobilization also poses a significant challenge for Arab governments, as protests can quickly turn into broader issues that challenge their legitimacy. Therefore, it is unlikely that any Arab state will normalize relations with Israel in 2024. The ongoing conflict in Gaza also has implications for the Gulf sub-region’s security architecture. It could potentially lead to increased tensions between Israel and Iran and draw in other regional actors. The GCC members and Iraq, neighboring Iran, will likely be the most affected by a potential escalation of these tensions.
The year 2023 saw significant progress in Syria’s reintegration into the Arab world, with the Syrian government regaining full-fledged Arab League membership and President Assad visiting several GCC states. The Gaza war is likely to expedite Syria’s reintegration into the Arab fold, as Arab states seek reconciliation with one another in the face of Israel’s actions. However, issues such as the Captagon trade could slow down Syria’s return to the region. Overall, the ongoing crisis in Gaza will continue to shape the Middle East’s geopolitics and regional dynamics in 2024.