The October 7 Hamas assault on Israel and Israel’s subsequent invasion of the Gaza Strip will play a significant function in shaping what unfolds within the Middle East in 2024. The Gaza warfare has manifestly and tragically affected Palestinians in Gaza and the occupied West Bank; up to now, tens of hundreds have been killed or injured and hundreds of thousands have been displaced. The warfare can also be prone to have critical repercussions for neighboring international locations, and certainly for your complete area, in 2024. And the warfare will proceed to break the repute of the United States and western powers that by and huge have stood by Israel in Gaza because it has violated the legal guidelines of warfare, worldwide humanitarian regulation, and different worldwide guidelines and norms.
To tackle necessary points at hand on this important area, Arab Center Washington DC (ACW) has requested a few of its fellows and associates to supply reasoned views about what they count on in 2024, together with what might occur in US relations with the area. Issues not addressed right here will undoubtedly be lined on our pages all year long by these and different specialists.
Table of Contents:
Deadly Conditions Await Internally Displaced People in Gaza in 2024
Yara M. Asi, ACW Non-resident Senior Fellow
Among the various inconceivable statistics which were reported from the occupied and besieged Gaza Strip because the starting of the present Israeli navy marketing campaign have been these tracing the unprecedented ranges of displacement. Of the two.2 million residents of the Gaza Strip at present—80 p.c of whom are already registered refugees from 1948 and their descendants—it’s estimated that at the very least 85 p.c had been displaced from their houses by the top of 2023.
Footage of Gaza exhibits utter destruction: total neighborhood blocks have been ruined, together with faculties, retailers, well being services, and houses. Many of the Gazans pressured to flee their houses since October 7 can have nothing to return to—if they’re able to keep away from being killed by bombing, an infection, or hunger. There is not any straightforward highway forward for these almost 2 million folks, even when the bombs have been to cease tomorrow—and there’s no indication that can occur any time quickly.
Reports from survivors and from support staff on the bottom paint a harrowing image of the few shelters that stay purposeful, with important overcrowding and a scarcity of water, meals, gas, medical care, and sanitation services. Most residents of Gaza are experiencing hunger, with many reporting that they’re barely capable of eat one meal per day. Pregnant girls are pressured to provide start in crowded and unsanitary situations, generally with out entry to ache treatment and even to a medical skilled. These horrific situations, coupled with the collapse of the well being system in Gaza and the weakened bodily state of survivors, create an ideal setting for the unfold of infectious ailments, which some specialists predict may kill many extra folks than airstrikes within the coming months.
Massive tent cities have fashioned all through the south of the Strip, with prolonged households huddled into small, generally makeshift constructions. Some Gazans solely have managed to take advantage of primary of shelters from salvaged wooden and rubble, leaving them fully uncovered to rain and unbearably chilly temperatures. How will these households fare within the coming months? Aside from numerous challenges to their mere survival, bigger questions persist. Where will these folks go? Who can pay to rebuild the ruins of their houses and neighborhoods? Will they even be capable of name Gaza dwelling once more?
Leaders from many humanitarian companies—who in recent times have witnessed atrocities in Afghanistan, Myanmar, Syria, Ukraine, and Yemen, amongst different websites of mass violence and deprivation—report that the humanitarian situations in Gaza at present are among the many worst they’ve ever seen develop so quickly. Simply to assist Gazans obtain a minimally acceptable way of life, support organizations are requesting important investments which have by no means been totally met by donors. The degree of demise and destruction is dire, however the situations for these left dwelling in Gaza are horrific, together with for a whole bunch of hundreds of kids. That such situations could possibly be justified by the world’s strongest international locations is an indictment of the credibility of the so-called worldwide group, which has constantly made clear that some lives are extra worthy of safety than others.
Autocratic Resilience within the Middle East
Daniel Brumberg, ACW Non-resident Senior Fellow
While democratic backsliding has unfolded in lots of corners of the globe, together with the United States, the Middle East is distinguished by the endurance of autocracies. Tunisia, the one Arab nation that skilled a post-Arab Spring transition to an imperfect democracy, now could be dominated by a populist autocrat who has consolidated his energy. President Kais Saied has been embraced by many regional leaders equivalent to Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, whose regime has been busy providing Tunisia classes within the expertise of repression.
That stated, autocracies stay susceptible. The Gaza warfare has uncovered the big hole between most of the area’s regimes and societies on Palestine, whereas exploding the infrastructure of Israeli-Arab cooperation that had virtually erased the Palestinians from the worldwide political and strategic map. Moreover, rulers’ rising energy—abetted by their use of expertise to pursue critics at dwelling and overseas—has left regimes dangerously remoted from a lot of their residents, and made it tougher to play the divide-and-rule recreation. Because this recreation requires a hobbled pluralism, it’s potential that in 2024 some Arab leaders would possibly attempt to foster a measure of political infitah, or opening, so long as they’ll restrict such reforms from upending their rule.
A Resurgence of Non-State Actors of the “Axis of Resistance”
Imad Ok. Harb, ACW Director of Research and Analysis
The final quarter of 2023 supplied a transparent indication that Iran’s non-state associates within the Arab world—Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Palestine’s Hamas, Yemen’s Houthis, and Iraq’s Shia militias—are prone to see a resurgence in 2024. Prior to and through 2023, these teams had succeeded in carving for themselves dominant roles, certainly dominant domains, within the international locations the place they function, though they remained unrecognized by the worldwide group as authentic rulers or political actors. Hezbollah has for years exercised efficient affect over Lebanese affairs; previous to October 7 Hamas had full management over the Gaza Strip; the Houthis appointed themselves rulers in Sanaa in 2014; and over the previous decade Iraq’s many Shia militias have coalesced to regulate the nation’s decision-making.
This excessive diploma of activism in difficult Israeli and American insurance policies has up to now been met by each utter hubris and refusal to acknowledge realities in Tel Aviv and Washington. Israel continues to pursue a colonial-settler agenda relating to Palestinian rights and to prosecute a genocide in Palestine that has since October 7 killed some 23,000 folks in Gaza and a few 330 within the occupied West Bank, injured about 60,000, displaced shut to 2 million folks, and destroyed a whole bunch of hundreds of houses. The underlying logic is predicated on the long-used premise of “would possibly is true,” because the United States maintains its blind diplomatic and navy assist of Israel regardless of the plain value to the United States’ repute. In pursuing a navy resolution in Gaza—though it’s apparent that there isn’t any such resolution to the Palestine query—Israel and the United States ignore the truth that the Palestinians are a folks with rights and that they aren’t going to just accept dwelling as second-class residents in an apartheid state.
Iran’s non-state associates within the Arab world would not have a monopoly on the wrestle towards Israel’s insurance policies and practices and the United States’ complicity within the latter’s warfare on the Palestinians. But within the near-absence of a critical Palestinian various to Hamas within the battle with Israel, and the utter failure of the Arab world to face as much as Israel and the United States, the Islamic Republic’s Arab buddies appear to be the one actors prepared to defend Palestinian rights, no matter the price. In an setting of Palestinian and Arab officialdom bereft of an efficient response to Israel’s denial of rights and certainly genocide, the non-state actors of the “axis of resistance” are prone to obtain extra prominence and power in 2024.
US Palestine Policy in 2024: More Challenges and Broken Promises
Khalil E. Jahshan, ACW Executive Director
As the United States embarks on resuscitating its Middle East diplomatic marketing campaign for the brand new 12 months, and amid fears in Washington about regional escalation past Gaza, the Biden administration dispatched this week prime officers in a regional tour de power. In addition to Secretary of State Antony Blinken, these touring this week embrace Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf, Department of State Counselor Derek Chollet, Assistant Secretary of State for Energy Resources Geoffrey Pyatt, and the White House Special Presidential Energy Security Coordinator Amos Hochstein. Blinken’s week-long journey, which covers 9 international locations, is his fourth to the area since October 7.
On the eve of his departure for the Middle East, Secretary Blinken said that his mission focuses totally on stopping the Gaza warfare from escalating into strategic regional bother spots like Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Iraq, Iran, and the Red Sea. The American diplomatic workforce additionally will consider securing the discharge of Israeli hostages in Gaza, addressing determined humanitarian wants in Gaza, and coordinating efforts with key stakeholders within the area in regards to the “day after,” that’s, who will reconstruct and rule Gaza post-Hamas.
The declared goals of Blinken’s journey, in addition to US coverage on the whole, appear fairly lofty and idealistic contemplating the extreme and unrelenting show by Israel of brutality, destruction, violence, and lust for vengeance since October 7, 2023. Furthermore, the targets set by the secretary mirror the one-sided place adopted by the Biden administration because the Hamas assault on that day. This place is an element and parcel of acquainted spent insurance policies espoused by Washington over the previous 75 years of protracted battle on this turbulent area. President Biden proceeded on October 7 to just accept Netanyahu’s logic and agenda for the warfare as if the historical past of the Arab-Israeli battle started on that date, a coverage strategy that’s completely divorced from 56 years of occupation and siege and 75 years of battle.
In taking this stance, Biden has weakened the American place and undermined the credibility of the United States all through the area. An overwhelming majority of Arab residents throughout 16 international locations within the Middle East and North Africa, polled over the last three weeks by the Arab Opinion Index on the Doha Institute in Doha, Qatar, questioned US coverage and regarded it missing in credibility and effectiveness. Ninety-four p.c regarded on the United States place negatively. In addition, fifty-one p.c noticed the US as the most important risk to the safety and stability of the area, even forward of Israel, Iran, China, and Russia. This deeply felt lack of credibility will stay the principle problem confronted by the United States within the area all through 2024, and properly past.
The credibility deficit will deepen as soon as the administration will get to the subsequent part of the raging battle in Gaza. As Blinken continues US efforts to assist launch the hostages, he’s confronted with the problems created by his authorities’s one-sided coverage. The similar drawback will emerge as US coverage matures sufficient to hunt a long-lasting and enforceable ceasefire between Israel and no matter authorities exists in Gaza on the time. American bona fides will show too weak to hold the day. That weak point will significantly hang-out the Biden administration, or its successor, as soon as the events get to the intense diplomatic problem of forging a long-term, peaceable resolution to the Palestinian-Israeli battle.
The Western Media Must Assume Its Journalistic Duties in 2024
Tamara Kharroub, ACW Deputy Executive Director and Senior Fellow
Anti-Palestinian bias in western media has been well-documented for many years. The skewed protection of Palestine and Israel in favor of the Israeli narrative is clear via the disproportionate use of Israeli sources versus Palestinian ones, the dehumanization of Palestinians and double requirements in protection, and the decontextualization of occasions and the usage of framings that not often point out many years of Israeli occupation and oppression. Western protection additionally ceaselessly makes use of language that absolves Israel of committing crimes towards Palestinians, for instance by saying “Palestinians died” or “humanitarian disaster” with out saying who’s accountable and utilizing emotive terminology like “horrific” solely when reporting on incidents of Israeli deaths. This gross imbalance in reporting has persevered though the overwhelming majority of victims within the battle are Palestinians and there may be considerable each day documentation of Israel’s violations of human rights and worldwide regulation.
Decades of biased protection have helped deliver us to this second of normalized anti-Palestinian racism, dehumanization, and unchecked genocidal language towards Palestinians. The previous three months of Israel’s warfare on Gaza have additional uncovered the western media’s misuse of journalistic ethics and requirements and disrespect for Palestinian lives. Recent quantitative research of US cable information and print information protection after October 7 verify this bias.
At this pivotal second within the Palestinian-Israeli battle, data is energy and is crucial for decision-makers and most of the people alike. The information media play an important function in shaping perceptions and influencing public opinion, and thus in garnering assist for sure insurance policies and actions, and even in manufacturing narratives and inciting hatred and violence. This is exactly why the media has historically been known as “the fourth property” and why media shops have journalistic requirements and codes of ethics that they’re anticipated to observe.
Dehumanization is step one towards genocide, and the Western media’s blatant dehumanization of Palestinians and presentation of Israeli speaking factors as info are alarming. Repeating the speaking factors of an occupying energy recognized for violating worldwide regulation and for persistently propagating false data, with out questioning or scrutiny, fails the essential take a look at of journalistic requirements. But within the final three months most western journalists have largely failed to research, confirm, or push again towards Israeli authorities narratives and propaganda, whereas perpetuating the normalization of anti-Palestinian racism and dehumanization. This makes these journalists complicit in Israel’s crimes towards Palestinians.
In this context of mainstream media bias, social media platforms have emerged as various areas for marginalized and oppressed populations such because the Palestinians to inform their tales and to have company over their narrative. With western media reporters absent in Gaza, it has been Palestinian journalists and content material creators within the Strip who’ve risked their lives and people of their households to ensure the Palestinian actuality and perspective are introduced to the world. Shockingly, Israel has killed least 72 Palestinian journalists and media staff in Gaza since October 7, in accordance with the US-based Committee to Protect Journalists (Palestinian sources put the quantity at greater than 100). But social media corporations, particularly X and Meta’s Facebook and Instagram, even have contributed to the bias via censoring voices in assist of Palestinians and eradicating and “shadow banning,” or limiting the visibility of, Palestinian content material and accounts. This additional contributes to limiting accountability efforts for Israeli crimes and to bolstering the dehumanization of Palestinians.
Today, as Israel’s genocide towards the Palestinians in Gaza continues, the mainstream media and social media corporations proceed to apply double requirements with regard to Palestinian lives, narratives, and voices, with some journalists even going so far as serving as apologists and defenders of properly documented Israeli crimes. Whether this newest warfare on Gaza (and the killing up to now of extra 23,000 Palestinians, most of whom are harmless males, girls, and youngsters), will awaken the mainstream media and expertise corporations in 2024 stays to be seen. But what is evident is that within the digital media panorama there are limits to makes an attempt at silencing oppressed teams and to regulate the narrative.
Biden Administration Policy Will Worsen Conditions within the Middle East
Laurie King, ACW Board Member
As the Biden administration begins what could be its last 12 months, US overseas coverage within the Middle East is eventually entrance and heart, however not because of any resurgence of exercise and concern on the White House or the State Department. Hamas’s unprecedented October 7 assault on southern Israel and Israel’s brutal response have rearranged many items on the regional chess board. Rather than steeling the United States to cope with altering dynamics, nonetheless, October’s aftermath has seen President Joe Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken stumbling blindly. They have misplaced political capital at dwelling and overseas and proceed to disregard the varied tensions inside and desires of nations equivalent to Egypt, Jordan, and Iraq because the United States frantically sends navy, monetary, and diplomatic assist to Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his excessive right-wing authorities.
The Middle East didn’t loom giant in Biden’s 2020 marketing campaign platform; as an alternative, China took heart stage. Biden’s promise to take away the United States from the 20-year Afghanistan quagmire earned him his first sharp criticisms from each the left and proper amongst US overseas coverage pundits. While through the 2020 marketing campaign Biden regarded down his nostril at Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi as “Trump’s favourite dictator,” and expressed disgust with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, as soon as in workplace Biden finally embraced each autocrats. As President, Biden has stated little about human rights and democracy within the area, and reasonably than beginning a brand new overseas coverage chapter within the Middle East, has centered on attempting to develop Trump’s Abraham Accords to Saudi Arabia and different Arab international locations. Biden additionally ignored rising Israeli repression within the occupied West Bank and Gaza, turned a chilly shoulder to Lebanon’s a number of crises, and confirmed little concern for or consciousness of Iraq’s governance challenges.
No energy on the earth, aside from the United States, can rein in Israel’s murderous actions in Gaza. If not checked, Netanyahu below American eyes might in 2024 push Gazans into Egypt and successfully destroy Israel’s peace agreements with each Egypt and Jordan. Such dire developments would ignite protests throughout the area, consign the Abraham Accords to historical past’s trash bin, and open the best way for China to imagine the mantle of worldwide energy participant within the area.
Biden’s Gaza Stand Does Not Bode Well for His Re-Election
Dana El Kurd, ACW Non-resident Senior Fellow
Between October 7 and the top of November 2023, over 1,800 pro-Palestine protests occurred in some 450 American cities throughout 49 states, the District of Columbia, Guam, and Puerto Rico. That quantity absolutely elevated through the month of December. These protests can’t be defined just by the focus of Arab