The current assaults orchestrated by Tehran-backed militias have raised issues in regards to the Iranian regime’s enduring terrorist agenda and its potential to spark a full-blown battle within the unstable Middle East. However, countering the regime’s aggressions doesn’t essentially result in warfare, opposite to the narrative woven by the Iranian regime itself, as highlighted by the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) in a current article.
“The regime’s true navy capabilities are constrained, and its dependence on proxy forces underscores an intrinsic weak point and vulnerability,” states the NCRI. Despite its grandiose shows of navy may and rhetoric, the regime has not retaliated towards assaults on its forces and commanders in Syria and Lebanon, suggesting a reluctance to interact in direct confrontation.
Moreover, the Iranian regime’s rhetoric typically contradicts its actions. While it spends billions of {dollars} on nuclear weapons and ballistic missile applications, its response to assaults on its forces has been remarkably restrained. This lack of retaliation has fueled frustration inside its ranks, decoding it as an indication of weak point.
The regime’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei emphasised in 2018 that warfare is just not in Iran’s curiosity, stating, “Because warfare includes two sides: we, who don’t provoke battle, and the Americans, who additionally chorus from beginning a warfare as they know it could be completely to their drawback.” Khamenei’s phrases mirror a calculated understanding that direct confrontation with Western nations wouldn’t favor the Iranian regime.
The regime’s lobbyists say {that a} decisive confrontation with the regime would exacerbate the disaster and push the regime into warfare. This is a baseless declare. In truth, historic cases have proven that wherever decisive motion has been taken towards the regime, it has retreated. In distinction, when confronted with a softer method, the regime turns into extra assertive, intensifying its harmful habits.
In the face of Tehran’s provocations, the worldwide group has sometimes demonstrated resolute motion, forcing the regime to recalibrate its method. The UK’s strong response to the seizure of Royal Navy personnel in 2007 resulted in Iran releasing the sailors after 13 days. Similarly, when Iran was suspected of attacking business oil tankers in 2019, the US and its allies deployed extra warships and carried out navy workout routines, compelling Iran to disclaim involvement and de-escalate tensions.
The most notable instance of resolute motion was the US navy’s killing of Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani in 2020. Despite the regime’s vows of extreme revenge, it avoided immediately placing US forces and as an alternative carried out symbolic retaliatory assaults by way of its proxy forces. This sample of habits signifies the regime’s aversion to risking a direct confrontation with Western nations.
As the NCRI aptly summarizes, “The regime’s true navy capabilities are constrained, and its dependence on proxy forces underscores an intrinsic weak point and vulnerability.” It is thru resolute and decisive insurance policies that the worldwide group can pressure the Iranian regime to rethink its method and in the end again down from its aggressive stance.