Two former Lebanese politicians, Fouad Siniora, who served as a member of parliament and prime minister, and Basem Shabb, who was a member of parliament – printed an article in The Washington Post with the headline: “The Arab world is extending a hand to Israel. Will it reciprocate?
It is extremely uncommon for 2 veteran politicians (a Muslim and a Christian), notably from Lebanon, and notably throughout a struggle, to name on Israel to work in the direction of a political answer on the idea of “two states for 2 peoples.” They argue that the battle, at coronary heart, shouldn’t be Arab-Israeli however Israeli-Palestinian, and particularly, between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.
In their sober evaluation, they clarify that Iran and its proxies pose an identical and even larger hazard to Arab states than to Israel, and that “Israelis and Arabs are on the identical web page so far as the Iranian nuclear program is anxious.” They add that the Houthis are an even bigger risk to Saudi Arabia than to Israel, as are the Shi’ite militias in Iraq to the Iraqi state. They conclude that “one of the best antidote to Iranian expansionism is a two-state answer with the Palestinians.”
Hamas struggle has not modified geopolitical divisions and alliances within the Middle East
Three months after the October 7 bloodbath, it’s evident that the divisions and alliances within the Middle East haven’t modified dramatically. On one facet are Iran and its allies – Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and the Shi’ites in Iraq, all of them non-state actors. Alongside them may be positioned Turkey, though it’s not collaborating within the navy effort however is especially contributing with anti-Israel propaganda. On the opposite facet are the states which have signed peace treaties and/or normalization agreements with Israel – Egypt, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco, in addition to Saudi Arabia.
An evaluation of the response of the states within the “reasonable” camp reveals that Arab public opinion, which is basically supportive of the Palestinian trigger, has not managed to result in any vital change within the stance held by the management. Jordan, for instance, recalled its ambassador from Tel Aviv, however this can be a step that has beforehand been taken 4 instances and is thus common. King Abdullah additionally not too long ago printed an article in The Washington Postcalling for a global effort to advertise a regional structure for peace, safety, and progress, constructed on an Israeli-Palestinian peace settlement primarily based on the two-state answer.
Egypt didn’t even recall its ambassador (because it did in the course of the Lebanon War and the Second Intifada). The Egyptian international minister declared that “Israel is a neighboring state and we’ve relations with sturdy foundations, primarily based on a peace settlement that has confirmed its potential to fulfill challenges and overcome them.” Egypt can be taking part in an vital function in negotiating the discharge of the hostages and in discussions in regards to the “day after,” and it will appear that its pursuits vis-à-vis Hamas are the identical as Israel’s.
The positions taken by the UAE and Bahrain have been notably brave, denouncing the bloodbath by Hamas as “barbaric.”
When President Isaac Herzog met with the ruler of the Emirates, Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahya, on the UN Climate Change Conference in Dubai in November and along with his advisor Anwar Gargash. The latter added that his nation had made a “strategic determination” when it signed an settlement with Israel and that regardless of the difficulties, there isn’t a different to a political answer that can finish the occupation. President Herzog was additionally pictured shaking arms with the ruler of Qatar, Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, on the Conference. Morocco, which broke off diplomatic relations with Israel in the course of the Second Intifada, didn’t recall its ambassador this time and has continued commerce relations, regardless of a lot public protest domestically.
Similarly, the Joint Arab and Islamic Summit, held in Saudi Arabia in November, adopted a comparatively conciliatory tone, led by the peace and normalization states. While the concluding assertion included a number of harsh denunciations of Israel, it additionally reconfirmed the dedication to peace as a strategic selection, primarily based on the Arab peace initiative of 2002 and on the two-state answer of Israel alongside Palestine primarily based on the 1967 borders. The peace and normalization states, led by Saudi Arabia, opposed the inclusion of concrete steps in opposition to Israel within the concluding assertion issued by the summit. While the Saudis have been compelled to droop normalization talks, declarations made by President Joe Biden and by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) would appear to point that this purpose has not been deserted.
The struggle has raised many questions on Israel’s place within the Middle East. The fundamental fear was that the method of recognition and integration of Israel within the area, which started with the peace treaty with Egypt (if not earlier than), can be halted and even set again following the struggle in Gaza. As of now, this worry has not been realized. Even if a full-scale struggle breaks out between Israel and Hezbollah, it will be unlikely to change the main fault traces within the Middle East. The fundamental risk lies in a deterioration of the state of affairs within the West Bank, and notably the Temple Mount.
At the identical time, the truth that the peace and normalization agreements have survived the struggle doesn’t imply that it’s potential to proceed ignoring and failing to deal with the Palestinian subject, because the Netanyahu governments have tried to do.
The struggle has returned this subject to the highest of the agenda, and paradoxically, it presents a chance for an answer that can strengthen Israel’s place within the Middle East. A mixture of normalization with Saudi Arabia and fixing the Palestinian subject may show to be an Archimedean tipping level. Will Israel reciprocate the prolonged Arab hand? requested the 2 Lebanese politicians. Time will inform.
The author teaches within the Department of Islamic and Middle Eastern Studies on the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and is a board member of Mitvim – The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies.