Where higher to start than the behemoth?
The years race by, the sport evolves, we develop outdated, the Dodgers spend the GDP of a small Pacific island nation in free company … and nonetheless, the AL East stays baseball’s best division, the SEC of MLB. And now that the Baltimore Orioles, lengthy a hapless punching bag, have transitioned from joke to juggernaut, this has turn into an much more imposing and intriguing assortment of groups.
Besides the Red Sox, whose stinginess has left the pitching workers thinner than phyllo dough, this division seems huge open. Coming off their worst season since 1992, the Yankees have one thing to show, however extra importantly, in addition they have Juan Soto. Toronto missed out on Shohei Ohtani over the winter however returns a deep rotation and a doubtlessly potent high of the lineup. The Rays have made the playoffs for 5 straight years and have one of many sport’s most underrated sluggers in Yandy Díaz. And whereas the defending AL East champion Orioles have already seen their pitching workers besieged by accidents, Baltimore’s seemingly infinite cadre of younger influence hitters will hold the Birds within the combine for an additional journey to October.
With Opening Day lower than three weeks away, let’s break down the state of issues within the American League East.
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Projected document (per FanGraphs, as of March 11): 89-73
Best-case situation: Gerrit Cole repeats his 2023 Cy Young season. Aaron Judge doesn’t run right into a wall, rips 60 homers and wins MVP. Juan Soto attracts 300 walks, loves being a Yankee and indicators a 10-year extension. Anthony Volpe’s new, contact-oriented method carries him to the All-Star Game. Clarke Schmidt blossoms into an actual frontline arm, whereas Carlos Rodón and Nestor Cortes keep wholesome and rediscover their finest selves. Austin Wells is Jorge Posada with extra energy and a greater ‘stache. The Yankees win 105 video games earlier than taking down the Astros in an epic ALCS behind a heroic Game 7 aid look from Cole. The World Series is a joyous epilogue, with the Yanks sweeping their approach to ring No. 28.
Worst-case situation: Cole’s elbow difficulty results in main surgical procedure and causes him to overlook the whole season. The non-Judge/Soto hitters underperform, and the lineup runs dry for prolonged stretches, prefer it has lately when Judge is out. Injuries wreck the rotation once more, besides the Yankees are much more ill-prepared this time after sending all that upper-level depth to San Diego for Soto. Speaking of Soto, he’s an offensive power and a defensive disaster, and he hates every part about enjoying in New York. In truth, the Yankees are such a large number that he leaves in free company come winter. The entire factor turns right into a circus by mid-July, and each Aaron Boone and Brian Cashman are working for the St. Louis Cardinals by this time subsequent yr.
Make-or-break participant: Anthony Rizzo. The veteran first baseman wasn’t the identical hitter final yr after a late-May collision with Fernando Tatis Jr. left him with an undiagnosed concussion and vertigo signs. From that incident till the untimely finish to his season on Aug. 1, Rizzo had an uncharacteristically disastrous .496 OPS. But he appears wholesome this spring, with a pair of bombs already despatched a-flying, and whether or not or not he returns to being a reliable third offensive possibility might make or break the 2024 Yankees.
Season prediction: Injuries within the rotation expose the shortage of pitching depth for stretches of the summer time, however Soto, Judge and Cole are so good that the Yankees climate the storm. The lineup’s supporting solid, guys similar to Volpe, Rizzo, Alex Verdugo, Austin Wells, DJ LeMahieu and Gleyber Torres, carry out admirably, if unspectacularly. When the mud settles, the stability within the bullpen and the starpower atop the lineup give the Yankees sufficient juice to hold them previous 90 wins and into October.
Projected document: 86-76
Best-case situation: Randy Arozarena, Yandy Díaz, two unrelated guys named Lowe and 22 ballplayers you’ve barely heard of win 101 video games. The underrated supporting solid — Josh Lowe, Brandon Lowe, Isaac Paredes, José Siri and Harold Ramirez had been all above-average hitters final yr — retains smashing till high prospect Junior Caminero arrives like a free-swinging lightning bolt. In the rotation, none of Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale, Zack Littell, Ryan Pepiot or Taj Bradley comes with the dependability and upside of a Shane McClanahan or Tyler Glasnow (harm/on the Dodgers), however all have a shot to be well-above-average starters. Bradley, specifically, might leap ahead and turn into the following in a protracted line of magnificent, homegrown Rays starters. Arozarena and Díaz get sizzling in October, and Tampa wins a bunch of low-scoring postseason video games en path to bringing the Trop its first World Series title.
Worst-case situation: Arozarena, Díaz, two unrelated guys named Lowe and 22 ballplayers you’ve barely heard of win 77 video games. An damage to a number of of the large bats leaves the offense missing, and the pitching can’t make up the distinction. The absences of McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs (all recovering from elbow surgical procedure of some type) depart too huge a void atop the rotation. Eflin, Civale, Littell, Pepiot and Bradley are all nearer to stable than spectacular, and Tampa feels the lack of Glasnow in a giant manner. The inexperienced catching tandem of René Pinto and Alex Jackson — who’ve solely 101 MLB begins mixed — flat-out isn’t ok. Toronto, Baltimore and the Yankees are all a tier above the Rays, who end double digits again of a playoff spot.
Make-or-break participant: Here are the hitters who posted a better wRC+ than Yandy Díaz final yr: Shohei Ohtani, Ronald Acuña Jr., Corey Seager and Mookie Betts. The man with leg-sized arms was additionally fourth in MLB in batting common, fourth in on-base share and seventh in common exit velocity. This is, full cease, among the best hitters on the planet. Only if Díaz retains it going can the Rays problem for a division title in a loaded AL East.
Season prediction: Arozarena, Díaz, two unrelated guys named Lowe and 22 ballplayers you’ve barely heard of win 92 video games. That’s what the Tampa Rays do: nameless excellence. But that method hasn’t labored in latest postseasons, with the lineup scoring simply two runs whole throughout its previous 4 October video games. Small pattern dimension apart, this backside of Tampa’s lineup is an actual underbelly that wasn’t meaningfully improved over the winter. The run prevention in Tampa is all the time going to be nice — a Bradley breakout might make it actually elite — however until Caminero comes up and shines, the Rays don’t seem to have the bats.
Projected document: 85-77
Worst-case situation: Another yr of Vlad and Bo being nice as a substitute of supersonic isn’t sufficient when the remainder of the lineup turns right into a pumpkin. George Springer confirms that his mediocre 2023 (102 OPS+) was, sadly, the start of the tip, and the remainder of the supporting solid (Justin Turner, Kevin Kiermaier, Alejandro Kirk, Daulton Varsho, and so on.) underwhelms. The pitching battles by way of accidents and doesn’t have sufficient depth to fend off the AL East stampede. Toronto spends October on trip as this once-inspiring Blue Jays window inches one yr nearer to closing.
Make-or-break participant: George Springer. In Year 3 with Toronto, the now-34-year-old began to indicate indicators of decline. His vary, dash velocity and exit velocity all dwindled in 2023, an comprehensible improvement contemplating he’s creeping towards 40, which is 80 in baseball years. An uptick in Springer’s contact fee saved the general profile afloat, however there’s an opportunity the previous Astro is just too far previous his bodily prime to be the third musketeer this offense so desperately wants. Whether Springer can (1) keep wholesome and (2) ship extra juice will probably be an enormous key to Toronto’s season.
Season prediction: The Jays’ total roster high quality on each side of the ball allows them to remain afloat within the relentless fracas that’s the American League East. The hitters not named Bichette or Guerrero bop sufficient to safe one other journey to the wild-card spherical. The rotation quartet of Gausman, Berrios, Bassitt and Kikuchi offers enough protection over the grueling summer time months till a late-season call-up of high pitching prospect Ricky Tiedemann offers a much-needed jolt. Even so, as at present constructed, this workforce doesn’t have fairly sufficient high-end expertise to journey deep into autumn. Ohtani would’ve helped; at the very least they tried.
Who will come out on high in baseball’s best division? (Henry Russell/Yahoo Sports)
BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Projected document: 85-77
Best-case situation: Everything that occurred in 2023 occurs once more in 2024, besides everyone is a yr older and higher and will get to share a roster with Corbin Burnes. Adley Rutschman faucets into the uncooked energy he showcased in final summer time’s Home Run Derby and doubles his dwelling run whole from 20 to 40. Gunnar Henderson makes his first of 15 All-Star Games. The Kyle Bradish and John Means accidents turn into insignificant, and each are beginning video games by May. Grayson Rodriguez hones his scintillating uncooked stuff and turns into an actual third horse. Jackson Holliday, the consensus high prospect in all of baseball, debuts in late April and wins Rookie of the Year. And, in fact, the upcoming possession turnover occurs earlier than the commerce deadline, so GM Mike Elias can pull off some wacky, uncharacteristic commerce for an costly pitcher on a foul workforce.
Worst-case situation: The accidents to Bradish and Means are lasting, leaving the rotation undermanned and overmatched. Rodriguez doesn’t take the leap ahead, and the Felix Bautista-less bullpen fumbles the chili within the later innings. The subsequent wave of younger O’s hitters — Heston Kjerstad, Colton Cowser, Jackson Holliday and Jordan Westburg — doesn’t regulate to big-league pitching, and the the outdated guard — Anthony Santander, Cedric Mullins, Ryan Mountcastle and Austin Hays — doesn’t choose up the slack. Baltimore is overlooked of the postseason image, questioning what might’ve been had they traded for an additional top-level arm to pair with Burnes. Worst of all, despised proprietor John Angelos modifications his thoughts and decides to not promote the workforce to David Rubenstein.
Make-or-break participant: Grayson Rodriguez. If the Bradish and Means accidents linger, that may put unexpected duty on G-Rod’s younger shoulders. In final yr’s ALDS in opposition to Texas, the Nacogdoches Rocket seemed overwhelmed by the second, ending his outing with extra runs allowed (5) than outs recorded (4). For the Orioles to resist this spring’s pitching accidents, Rodriguez might want to show himself as a frontline difference-maker, particularly come October.
Season prediction: The lack of high-end pitching — within the rotation and within the ‘pen — prevents the Birds from capturing one other AL East crown, however the offense bops sufficient to safe a wild card. Not having Bautista for the whole season utterly reshapes the way in which supervisor Brandon Hyde navigates lineups, which might depart the bullpen in a tricky spot. Baltimore gained so many shut video games in 2023, because of Bautista and Yennier Cano, so it’s affordable to anticipate the win whole to slip a bit. But there’s an excessive amount of expertise within the lineup for this workforce to be dangerous; there ought to be October baseball at Camden Yards in consecutive seasons for the primary time since 1996-97.
BOSTON RED SOX
Projected document: 81-81
Best-case situation: Sox proprietor John Henry stumbles upon a misplaced metropolis of gold and decides to spend a few of his newfound riches on Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery. Those two, together with Brayan Bello and a hopefully not injured Lucas Giolito, kind among the best rotations (shock!) within the American League, because of the pitching genius of recent chief baseball officer Craig Breslow. A ticked off, running-on-all-cylinders Rafael Devers improves on protection and challenges for the MVP. So does Tristan Casas, who turns into one of many recreation’s finest slugging first basemen. A wholesome Trevor Story performs 150 video games whereas offering management and stability up the center. The remainder of the workforce falls into place, and Boston secures a wild-card berth in a storybook season as each second is captured by Netflix cameras.
Worst-case situation: It’s already taking place? Boston’s razor-thin rotation can’t rebound from Giolito’s latest elbow points. The pitching workers will get pummeled by the remainder of the division and finishes the yr with an ERA round six. Alex Cora, within the last yr of his contract, kinda checks out. Disenchanted by all of it, Devers sleepwalks by way of what ought to be his offensive peak. Every second is captured by Netflix cameras, with the outcome a messy, can’t-look-away docuseries for the ages, and to actually stick it to Fenway Sports Group, Liverpool does not win the Premier League.
Make-or-break participant: Brayan Bello. Even earlier than Giolito was in peril of lacking vital time, the Red Sox had been planning to lean on the soon-to-be 25-year-old right-hander, who has simply 39 profession MLB begins. Bello was basically a league-average pitcher in his sophomore marketing campaign final yr, however he was a extremely touted prospect arising the chain, and he has showcased an elite sinker/changeup combo since debuting in 2022. For the Red Sox to complete anyplace however fifth within the AL East, Bello must turn into extra of a power.
Season prediction: The Red Sox are worse than dangerous; they’re forgettable and irrelevant. Their unwillingness to spend predictably backfires, and the pivot from former head honcho Chaim Bloom to Breslow doesn’t change all that a lot. The lack of superstardom past Devers (and Casas) results in dwindling curiosity within the workforce, and by August, the town of Boston is watching preseason soccer. Very few individuals watch the Netflix doc, which, given the circumstances of the season, paints the Red Sox as a disorganized jambalaya of chaos.