Bryn Anderson/AP
Connecticut guard Tristen Newton celebrates after scoring towards San Diego State in the course of the first half of the NCAA Tournament males’s nationwide school basketball championship recreation on Monday, April 3, 2023, in Houston.
Wednesday, March 20, 2024 | Noon
Note: For the twelfth consecutive time since 2012, Talking Points will handicap each NCAA Tournament recreation towards the unfold. This is the ultimate entry in his four-part collection previewing all early areas and video games.
The University of Connecticut did not simply win final 12 months’s NCAA Tournament. It crushed the remainder of the competitors.
It at all times appears foolish in hindsight that the Huskies had a No. 4 seed to their title forward of probably the most dominant runs in occasion historical past, particularly from a betting standpoint. In the 2023 NCAA Tournament, Connecticut went 6-0 towards the unfold, protecting it by a mean of 13 factors per recreation.
In the previous 20 years, the one champion that was higher on the sports activities e-book in the course of the event was Villanova in 2016. Villanova additionally had him 6-0 towards the unfold, however was lined by a mean of 16.5 factors per recreation. However, the Wildcats additionally benefited from being an outlier within the type of underperforming in a number of video games that 12 months and a blowout 44-point win over Oklahoma that skewed the numbers.
Last 12 months, the Huskies have been anticipated to win each recreation, and so they did so with relative ease. So the common cowl margin was most likely suppressed as a result of there have been extra late-game conditions the place you have been simply holding a lead.
They did all of it regardless of being positioned within the hardest area for Sunday’s choice. I’ve to beat the identical handicap this 12 months as nicely. It’s too early to say this 12 months’s Connecticut crew is healthier than final 12 months’s nationwide championship model, nevertheless it’s definitely extra constant.
The Huskies have been the one affordable selection for the No. 1 total seed. They didn’t win the area they deserved the distinction as they’re in the course of the hardest groups for the second 12 months in a row.
The similar column a 12 months in the past stated of Connecticut, “If the event’s choice committee’s purpose was to evenly distribute the most effective groups throughout the 4 areas, it failed miserably.” . The column then goes on to report that the 2023 West Region consists of the highest-rated No. 2 seed (UCLA), the highest-rated No. 3 seed (Gonzaga State), the highest-rated No. 4 seed (Connecticut), and the highest-rated No. He identified that the second seeds are all in place. .5 Seed (St. Mary’s).
Now, this 12 months’s East Region consists of the highest-rated No. 1 seed (Connecticut), the highest-rated No. 3 seed (Illinois), the highest-rated No. 4 seed (Auburn), and the highest-rated No. 6 seed ( BYU). ).
And whereas second-seeded Iowa State is worse than Arizona State within the West and Tennessee within the Midwest, it is most likely doing higher than wherever else within the nation aside from Connecticut. The Cyclones averaged 17.6 factors per recreation, gained three video games, and gained the Big 12 Tournament.
Of course, the Huskies needn’t beat all of those groups, however there is a good probability they will must survive two of them to make it to the Final Four. That’s the way it performed out final 12 months, after they beat St. Mary’s 70-55 within the second spherical as three-point favorites, making it essentially the most tense recreation of the event.
If there is a state in Connecticut that may make it by the event regardless of being a non-premium seed this 12 months, it seems to be like Auburn. The Tigers would extra precisely be picked as a 2nd or third seed by the betting markets, regardless that gamblers have a tough time pricing them precisely all year long.
Auburn is the most effective energy convention within the nation with a 20-10-1 nationwide file and annihilated opponents in a similar way to Connecticut. That’s simply shy of the University of Connecticut’s 20-11 loss towards this 12 months’s unfold mark.
Potential Sweet 16 matchups within the East, UW vs. Auburn or No. 5 seed San Diego State (a rematch of final 12 months’s title recreation), and Iowa State vs. Illinois or BYU, are championship materials in their very own proper. It could grow to be.
Last 12 months’s preview column stated, “The West Final Four will doubtless be stronger than the precise Final Four of the complete NCAA Tournament.” It seems they have been proper, and historical past could repeat itself within the Eastern area this 12 months.
It can be an actual honor if Connecticut may win back-to-back championships for the primary time in 17 years since Florida in 2006 and 2007.
Read under for our picks towards the unfold for every East Division recreation. Play, Lean, and Guess are divided into three confidence classes and listed in tough order of confidence. At the time of publication, we show the most effective strains presently out there on chosen sides of Las Vegas.
No. 5 seed San Diego State -6.5 vs. No. 12 UAB, over/underneath: 139.5. San Diego State frontcourt star Jadon Rudy ought to trigger all types of issues for a UAB protection that’s mediocre at greatest. On the opposite hand, the Aztecs have the most effective protection the Blazers have encountered thus far all 12 months. UAB is a younger crew with a promising future, nevertheless it will get an unfair credit score for its coup within the American Athletic Conference Tournament, contemplating it broke out of the body in a dream-like vogue that allowed it to persist as a 25-1 underdog. has been performed. Play: San Diego State -6.5.
No. 2 seed Iowa State -16.5 vs. No. 15 South Dakota State, over/underneath: 135.5. Don’t be fooled by the destruction the Cyclones left right through the Big 12 Tournament. This shouldn’t be a crew constructed to beat many opponents. Iowa State’s market valuation is presently at an all-time excessive, which may point out a sale alternative. South Dakota State has constantly upset its backers within the NCAA Tournament, nevertheless it nonetheless suits the profile of a crew prone to make waves with its spacing on offense and hard-working protection. Play: South Dakota State +16.5.
No. 8 seed Florida Atlantic -3 vs. No. 9 seed Northwestern, over/underneath: 141. Florida Atlantic has been constantly dominant because the begin of convention play, going 7-13 towards the unfold this 12 months. Northwestern went 12-8 towards the unfold over the identical span and was at all times a nuisance towards extra proficient opponents. What must occur to maintain this pattern from persevering with within the NCAA Tournament?Florida Atlantic has a greater roster, however Northwestern has its greatest participant in veteran guard Boubouie. This ought to be extra of a choose recreation, as Florida Atlantic continues so as to add a premium to its valuation due to its Final Four look final 12 months. Play: Northwestern +3.
No. 3 seed Illinois -12 vs. No. 14 seed Morehead State, over/underneath: 148.5. Morehead State hits just about each mark as a mid-major sleeper prospect for a serious crew. He performs intentional offense, hits plenty of his 3-point photographs (which regularly go nicely), and has the size to not be overpowering on protection. As the season has progressed, Illinois’ offense has gotten increasingly more eye-catching, nevertheless it has usually been underwhelmed by defensive regression. Morehead State has little or no depth, however that is normally overrated in tournaments anyway. The Eagles ought to proceed to hold round until they get into foul hassle. Play: Morehead state +12.
No. 1 seed Connecticut-26 vs. No. 16 seed Stetson, over/underneath: 145.5. The Huskies are as a lot of a wrecking ball as marketed. You want a powerful purpose to wager on them. Stetson has a powerful protection and much exceeded its statistical profile to win the Atlantic Sun Conference event, however you could not have provided a stronger case. Lean: Connecticut -26.
No. 6 seed BYU -9.5 vs. No. 11 seed Duquens, over/underneath: 142. Yes, that is most likely essentially the most lopsided No. 6 seed vs. No. 11 seed recreation in NCAA Tournament historical past, however on paper the unfold was correct in reflecting that a lot. That could have been an excessive amount of after the Cougars opened as low 6.5-point favorites. Duquens has the expertise, is coming into his personal, and provided that he intends to do the proper factor with departing coach Keith Dambrot after the season, getting 3 factors is likely to be a little bit of a stretch. Guess: Duquens +9.5.
No. 4 seed Auburn -12.5 vs. No. 13 seed Yale, over/underneath: 141. There’s a purpose why Ivy League Tournament champions appear to torment their first-round opponents for years, if not utterly upset them. Each crew performs a singular model not typically seen by main convention opponents all year long. This is particularly true for Yale University. Yale seems to be extra poised for achievement than any of its predecessors, with 7-foot dynamic participant Danny Wolf main the best way. Guess: Yale University +12.5.
seventh seed Washington State +1.5 vs. tenth seed Drake, over/underneath: 138. Despite coming from a smaller convention, Drake could have the extra proficient gamers on this matchup. The Cougars definitely do not have a recreation breaker like Bulldogs swingman Tucker DeVries. It additionally looks like a stroke of luck that Drake performs only a brief drive from the Des Moines, Iowa, campus in Omaha, Nebraska. Drake would have been at the least cheaper if Washington State’s beginning worth was -1.5, however the line moved into place accurately. Guess: Drake -1.5.