The essential goal of the Iranian consulate in Damascus, which was bombed by Israeli airstrikes this week, was in all probability to not problem visas to individuals wishing to go to the Islamic Republic. Its actual operate seems to have been to function a command and management heart for the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), permitting Tehran to function a terrorist community throughout the Middle East from central Damascus.
Since Hamas launched lethal assaults towards Israel on October 7, the consulate common has served as Tehran’s essential regional command heart and has been utilized by Iran’s so-called It helps oversee the actions of the Axis of Resistance. and Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who assured their involvement in Israel’s destruction.
In mild of this, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF)’s missile assault on the bottom on Monday, which succeeded in killing a number of senior Revolutionary Guards commanders, was absolutely justified. The assault should be seen within the context of the proxy struggle between Tehran and Jerusalem that has escalated in latest months. Prior to October 7, Israeli warplanes repeatedly focused Iranian and Hezbollah targets inside Syria in an effort to thwart the Revolutionary Guards’ efforts to develop its navy presence alongside the Syrian border with Israel. was attacking.
Since then, Israeli navy exercise has elevated considerably, not least as a result of Hezbollah and different Iranian-backed militias have used their bases in Syria and southern Lebanon to launch a collection of rocket assaults towards the Jewish state. This is as a result of they’re conducting an assault. This fixed bombardment has devastated giant areas of northern Israel, forcing many Israelis to flee their properties and search refuge in main city areas additional south.
The IDF’s response was to launch a collection of airstrikes in Syria focusing on key Revolutionary Guards commanders, together with the assassination of Raji Mousavi in December. A key calculation in Iran’s willingness to assault targets in Syria is that, regardless of Iran’s massive fuss about supporting Hamas, the Islamic Republic has little urge for food for direct confrontation with Israel, and that They most popular to make use of proxy organizations. That soiled work.
Concerns that Israel’s newest assault might lastly provoke Iranian retaliation are being taken severely in Jerusalem, after a senior Revolutionary Guards official warned that Israel’s actions wouldn’t go unanswered. I’m positive there are. The Israel Defense Forces has canceled go away for all fight troops whereas mobilizing extra reservists in its air protection forces in preparation for an Iranian assault.
However, the extent to which Iran desires to escalate tensions within the area is debatable. The final time the Revolutionary Guard suffered a significant setback was in 2020 when the Trump administration assassinated one other Quds Force commander, Qasem Soleimani, at Baghdad airport. In response, Iran’s supreme chief vowed “extreme revenge,” however finally nothing was achieved.
Similarly, Iran can be cautious of getting concerned in a direct navy battle. Especially since Israel has made abundantly clear that it’ll reply to an assault on Iran by destroying Hezbollah’s terrorist infrastructure in southern Lebanon and Syria. It’s the identical factor they’re doing with Hamas in Gaza.
Despite their bravado about wiping Israel off the map of the Middle East, the Ayatollahs are nicely conscious that in the case of direct hostilities, they’re no match for the superior firepower of the Israelis.
Con Coughlin’s new ebook, Assad: Triumph of Tyranny, printed by Picador
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