Is Iran prepared to exchange its chief? Well, it depends upon what you learn.
Rumors have been circulating in current weeks concerning the well being of Ayatollah Khamenei, the supreme chief of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and his attainable successor. In late October 2024, The Jerusalem Post picked up a New York Times report that originally recommended that the octogenarian chief, who had served within the function since 1989, was significantly in poor health. The Times report has been up to date to right that it had incorrectly reported what was identified about his present well being standing, however the Times report has been up to date to right that it had incorrectly reported what was identified about his present well being standing, nevertheless it additionally included a correction to the report, together with the chance that his second son, Mojtaba, can be his successor. He mentioned a “quiet battle” was brewing over his successor.
In late November, rumors heated up once more, with numerous media shops, together with Israeli ones, suggesting that Khamenei had fallen right into a coma, setting off a race to call his successor ought to his incapacity proceed or worsen. Iranian sources rapidly denied this hypothesis.
Such hypothesis is just not new, courting again to 2007 and extra just lately with experiences that the Supreme Leader’s well being was mentioned to be poor in 2022.
Regardless of the reality about Khamenei’s well being, hypothesis factors to an ever-present actuality. The battle between Iran on the one hand, Israel on the opposite, and the West is not only about army energy and threats; it’s also about info warfare.
The story of Khamenei’s poor well being throughout this battle might be seen as a proxy for the well being and stability of the Islamic Republic. One idea is that the Islamic Republic is unstable and is one main occasion away from main change. Another is that Tehran’s authorities is in a greater place to cope with each home successors and exterior ideological enemies.
confrontation
Speculation about Khamenei’s well being comes at a time when relations between Israel and Iran are significantly tense. Over the previous 12 months, the longtime adversaries have exchanged heated rhetoric, however a collection of escalating occasions has additional exacerbated the state of affairs, together with assassinations of Iranian-allied figures in Gaza, Lebanon and Tehran, and extra just lately, direct army confrontations. It’s getting worse.
Consistently, either side used media and on-line platforms to push their opposing official narratives, then discovered digital echo chambers.
Consider October’s retaliatory missile strikes. Israel and Iran sought to downplay the impression of their respective assaults on their territory by issuing statements to the media suggesting there was little injury.
At the identical time, home media in each nations rapidly recommended that the airstrikes had achieved their goals. Iranian media recommended that Iranian missiles hit about 90% of Israeli targets. Israeli media countered that Iran’s important nuclear analysis facility had been attacked, severely damaging Iran’s analysis capabilities.
Such tales not solely intention to ship a message of self-proclaimed victory to the opposite aspect, but additionally to appease home audiences. For Tehran, the message is meant to increase additional to its regional companions, suggesting that Israel has been weakened by Iranian assaults and that Iran nonetheless helps it.
Social media performs an vital function in conveying these counter-messages to a wider viewers. Since 2010, Iran has sought to distort the social media panorama by way of the institution of pro-regime “sock puppets” that amplify pro-government propaganda. Former Iranian intelligence minister Haider Moslehi admitted in 2011 that the Iranian authorities had invested closely in “heavy info warfare.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addresses members of the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, in Jerusalem, November 18, 2024. AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg
Meanwhile, different nations against Israel and the Iranian authorities are additionally utilizing on-line platforms to ship messages on to the Iranian folks. Both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s former Shah, have used platforms resembling YouTube to encourage revolt in opposition to the Tehran authorities.
Iran makes use of comparable digital channels, and veteran diplomat Mohammad Javad Zarif makes use of the platform to spotlight Iran’s tradition, historical past and shared values with the Jewish folks, whereas additionally interesting to the Trump administration. He blames the Israeli authorities for its function in encouraging Iran to desert its nuclear program. Traded in 2018.
What does that imply?
Exchanges of missile assaults by Iran and Israel in October fueled hypothesis amongst media, politicians and diplomats that the area was getting ready to full-scale standard battle.
Indeed, rhetorical exchanges between Tehran and Tel Aviv embrace clear threats of devastating retaliation and warnings of great escalation. But to date, the cycle of mutual assaults seems to fulfill the strategic objectives of each army leaderships.
And for now, it seems that info and message wars are as soon as once more taking priority over precise, violent warfare.
After Israel’s final missile assault on October 26, Iran mentioned it reserved the precise to reply at a time and in a way of its personal selecting. But it was in all probability an extension of the media narrative marketing campaign.
Rather, the present state of affairs suggests a deliberate and calculated technique by each Iranian and Israeli militaries to preserve their respective army sources whereas looking for to attain home and regional goals by way of info warfare. .
For Israel, this implies pushing the narrative that it has demonstrated the flexibility to succeed in Iran’s crucial infrastructure and delicate safety targets at will. For Iran, this takes the type of claiming that it has re-established enough deterrence in opposition to a extra highly effective Israeli army.
The battle between Iran and Israel seems to have entered a brand new transitional part, escalating to a direct army battle.
Iranian state media continues to sentence Israel’s actions in Gaza and Lebanon, however on the similar time releases statements from army leaders reaffirming Iran’s readiness to answer what it considers acts of aggression. I’m doing it.
But at the very least for now, wars are fought not with standard army weapons, however with info and disinformation.