(Conversation) – Is Iran able to inherit management? Well, it will depend on what you learn.
Rumors have been circulating in current weeks concerning the well being of Ayatollah Khamenei, the supreme chief of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and his doable successor. In late October 2024, The Jerusalem Post picked up a New York Times report that originally recommended that the octogenarian chief, who had served within the function since 1989, was critically in poor health. The Times report has been up to date to appropriate that it had incorrectly reported what was identified about his present well being standing, however the Times report has been up to date to appropriate that it had incorrectly reported what was identified about his present well being standing, however it additionally included a correction to the report, together with the likelihood that his second son, Mojtaba, could be his successor. He mentioned a “quiet battle” was brewing over his successor.
In late November, rumors heated up once more, with varied media retailers, together with Israeli ones, suggesting that Khamenei had fallen right into a coma, setting off a race to call his successor ought to his incapacity proceed or worsen. Iranian sources rapidly denied this hypothesis.
Such hypothesis shouldn’t be new, relationship again to 2007 and extra just lately with stories that the Supreme Leader’s well being was mentioned to be poor in 2022.
Regardless of the reality about Khamenei’s well being, hypothesis factors to an ever-present actuality. The battle between Iran on the one hand, Israel on the opposite, and the West is not only about navy energy and threats; it’s also about data warfare.
The story of Khamenei’s poor well being throughout this battle will be seen as a proxy for the well being and stability of the Islamic Republic. One concept is that the Islamic Republic is unstable and is one main occasion away from main change. Another is that Tehran’s authorities is in a greater place to cope with each home successors and exterior ideological enemies.
confrontation
Speculation about Khamenei’s well being comes at a time when relations between Israel and Iran are notably tense. Over the previous yr, the longtime adversaries have exchanged fiery rhetoric, however a collection of escalating occasions, together with assassinations of Iranian-allied figures in Gaza, Lebanon and Tehran, and extra just lately direct navy confrontations, have additional exacerbated the scenario. It’s getting worse.
Consistently, either side used media and on-line platforms to push opposing official claims, then discovered digital echo chambers.
Consider October’s retaliatory missile strikes. Israel and Iran sought to downplay the affect of their respective assaults on their territory by issuing statements to the media suggesting there was little injury.
At the identical time, home media in each international locations rapidly recommended that the airstrikes had achieved their goals. Iranian media recommended that Iranian missiles hit about 90% of Israeli targets. Israeli media countered that Iran’s essential nuclear analysis facility had been attacked, severely damaging Iran’s analysis capabilities.
“Competition” Digital, Dream/Dreamland v3, Clip2Comic, IbisPaint, 2024
Such tales not solely intention to ship a message of self-proclaimed victory to the opposite aspect, but additionally to appease home audiences. For Tehran, the message is meant to increase additional to its regional companions, suggesting that Israel has been weakened by Iranian assaults and that Iran nonetheless helps it.
Social media performs an essential function in conveying these counter-messages to a wider viewers. Since 2010, Iran has sought to distort the social media panorama by the institution of pro-regime “sock puppets” that amplify pro-government propaganda. Former Iranian intelligence minister Haider Moslehi admitted in 2011 that the Iranian authorities had invested closely in “heavy data warfare.”
Meanwhile, Israeli and different Iranian authorities opponents are additionally utilizing on-line platforms to speak messages on to the Iranian individuals. Both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s former Shah, have used platforms resembling YouTube to encourage rebel towards the Tehran authorities.
Iran makes use of related digital channels, and veteran diplomat Mohammad Javad Zarif makes use of the platform to spotlight Iran’s tradition, historical past and shared values with the Jewish individuals, whereas additionally interesting to the Trump administration. He blames the Israeli authorities for its function in encouraging Iran to desert its nuclear program. Traded in 2018.
What does that imply?
Exchanges of missile assaults by Iran and Israel in October fueled hypothesis amongst media, politicians and diplomats that the area was on the point of full-scale typical struggle.
Indeed, rhetorical exchanges between Tehran and Tel Aviv embody clear threats of devastating retaliation and warnings of significant escalation. But to date, the cycle of mutual assaults seems to fulfill the strategic objectives of each navy leaderships.
And for now, it seems that data and message wars are as soon as once more taking priority over precise, violent warfare.
After Israel’s final missile assault on October 26, Iran mentioned it reserved the proper to reply at a time and in a way of its personal selecting. But it was in all probability an extension of the media narrative marketing campaign.
Rather, the present scenario suggests a deliberate and calculated technique by each Iranian and Israeli militaries to preserve their respective navy sources whereas in search of to attain home and regional goals by data warfare. .
For Israel, this implies pushing the narrative that it has demonstrated the power to succeed in Iran’s vital infrastructure and delicate safety targets at will. For Iran, this takes the type of claiming that it has re-established adequate deterrence towards a extra highly effective Israeli navy.
The battle between Iran and Israel seems to have entered a brand new transitional section, escalating to a direct navy battle.
Iranian state media continues to sentence Israel’s actions in Gaza and Lebanon, however on the similar time releases statements from navy leaders reaffirming Iran’s readiness to answer what it considers acts of aggression. I’m doing it.
But at the very least for now, wars are fought not with typical navy weapons, however with data and disinformation.
Shirvin Zeinalzadeh, Arizona State University Graduate Education Fellow
This article is republished from The Conversation beneath a Creative Commons license. Read the unique article.