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Amidst the historic occasions, Iran agreed to a ceasefire on Monday following restricted strikes at a US army base in Qatar.
The settlement, mediated by President Donald Trump, marks a dramatic de-escalation after the 12-day warfare.
Despite the looks of a ceasefire contract, consultants say the choice to step again Iran displays the intense casualties that army infrastructure has made within the wake of coordinated US-Israel assaults at nuclear weapons, missile stockpiles and main manufacturing services.
“Iran can not win this warfare,” mentioned Danny Obach, a army historian at Hebrew University. “They misplaced about 60% of the launchers. Even in the event that they nonetheless have round 1,000 long-range missiles, and so they do not operate correctly, they cannot deploy them successfully.”
Trump pronounces historic Iran-Israel ceasefire settlement to finish the “12-day warfare”
Iran’s supreme chief Ali Khamenei, left, President Donald Trump.
The assault on Al-Udaid Air Force Base in Qatar, the most important US base within the Middle East, prompted no casualties or minor injury, in line with US and Israeli officers. The strike seems to have been fastidiously adjusted.
“The strike in Qatar was coordinated with Americans and was not meant to impress or trigger actual hurt,” argued Sima Shine, a former Mossad worker at Israel’s National Security Institute and a senior Iranian skilled. “Iran nonetheless has weapons, however he would not need to draw the US to an all-out warfare. And they know that closing the Strait of Hormuz will finish badly for them.”
“What stays primarily intact is Iran’s short-distance capabilities,” mentioned Blaze Mishtal, vice chairman of coverage on the National Security Institute (Jinsa). “These are 1000’s of rockets, missiles and drones that can’t attain Israel, however they may completely hit bases in Qatar, Iraq, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates. That’s what we noticed on the Al-Udeid strike.”
Misztal added that Iran’s remaining Arsenals are “nicely developed and obtainable in a lot bigger numbers” than long-range weapons. “The hazard is not simply in regards to the US army. Iran can nonetheless goal vitality infrastructure, main cities and industrial transport throughout the Gulf.”
Supporters of Iraqi pro-Iranian teams have held photographs of Iranian revolutionary safety guards killed in Israeli airstrikes in Tehran, Tehran, on June 16, 2025, in Baghdad, the Ultra Secure neighbourhood that hosts the US embassy. (Photo by Ahmad al-Rubaye/AFP through Getty Images)
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In a 2024 report from Jinsa, Gen. Frank Mackenzie, former commander of the US Central Commander, warned that US bases on the Gulf had been extraordinarily susceptible to Iranian missile and drone saturation assaults. He famous that tools like Al-Udeid is simply minutes from Iran’s launch websites and has little time to reply, calling for stronger missile protection integration into the west with regional allies to beat the “geography tyranny.”
Chief of Staff Dan Kane confirmed that defence measures have been strengthened throughout Iraq and Syria because the US relocated a number of plane and ships forward of the anticipated Iranian retaliation.
Analysts say the true purpose for Iran’s climbing is the dimensions of the loss.
An enormous plume of smoke and fireplace has risen from an oil refinery in southern Tehran, Iran, reporting that an in a single day Israeli strike was focused on June 15, 2025.
Obach defined that Iran is at present dealing with what army theorist William Tecumseh Sherman as soon as described as “a spread of dangerous selections.” “They haven’t got the cash to rebuild all the pieces,” he mentioned. “They want to decide on between restoring missile packages, supporting proxy, or reviving nuclear infrastructure. They cannot do that every one.”
“Iran continues to be one of many world’s main nationwide sponsors’ terrifying sponsors,” added Misztal. “And they’ve invested closely in cyber for the reason that StuxNet assault in 2010. They’re all susceptible, with vitality infrastructure, native methods and even US targets.”
Members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) march through the parade. The IRGC is designated by the State Department as a overseas terrorist group. A big a part of that job is secretly working exterior of Iran. (Reuters)
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“Does Iran study sufficient classes from these assaults to mitigate its actions? That would not appear possible,” added Misztal. That hostility is central to its id and can’t be deserted with out shedding its legitimacy. ”
Efrat Lachter is an investigative reporter and warfare correspondent. Her work has taken her to 40 international locations, together with Ukraine, Russia, Iraq, Syria, Sudan and Afghanistan. She is the 2024 Night Vares Fellowship Journalism recipient. Lachter might be adopted by x @efratlachter.