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President Donald Trump brokered the historic Israeli-Iran ceasefire settlement on Monday, marking a dramatic pause in an important army battle between the 2 enemies.
The Monday night announcement got here into impact 12 hours later, following a timeline designed to permit for ultimate army operations on either side. However, within the following time, a barrage of Iran’s missile fires brought about many Israelis to query whether or not the ceasefire had already been violated.
Trump’s dealer says Iran’s ceasefire as an skilled, with the administration’s arsenal being crushed, however the risk stays
President Donald Trump will communicate with reporters on the Israel-Iran ceasefire earlier than driving Marines on the Southern Lawn of the White House in Washington, D.C. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci) on Tuesday, June 24, 2025.
Spencer described the US operations as historic.
“What’s historic is that the US has restricted nuclear targets (unequipped, unequipped) with zero losses, permitting Israel to take action in a means that’s solely America. Proliferation was nonpartisan, and this was a non-political victory.” Even after Iran struck a US base in Qatar, he mentioned, “The president confirmed immeasurable restraint and continued his give attention to broader targets. It prevented Iran from gaining nuclear weapons and persevering with its terrorist marketing campaign.”
Despite violence following the announcement, together with an Iranian strike that killed 4 civilians in Israel, Spencer believes the ceasefire might be held. “Both international locations are saying we’re completely going to do this now,” he mentioned. “Yes, President Trump may be very atypical in his ceasefire and communication strategies… “Don’t drop a single bomb.”
To perceive how such a ceasefire unfolds, Spencer pointed to 5 historic precedents characterised by delayed activation, gradual targets, and ultimate home windows of army positioning.
Israeli fighter jets take off to launch airstrikes on Yemen’s Houtsis. (IDF)
The Korean War Temporary (1953)
The truce that ended the Korean War, signed on July 27, 1953, consisted of a deliberate 12-hour delay earlier than it grew to become efficient. “This allowed for the ultimate army motion earlier than the synchronization stopped,” Spencer mentioned. This mannequin has a detailed response to the Israeli-Iran ceasefire.
Tour group visits Korean War Memorial on Veterans Day in Washington, DC
Yom Kippur War Ceasefire (1973)
The then Israeli Defense Minister General Moshe Dajan stood on the Egyptian aspect of the Suez Canal through the fourth Israeli Arab War on October 18, 1973.
Spencer famous that in 1973 Israel used the final time earlier than an unexplored ceasefire to reposition forces. “Israel made a number of motion in the previous couple of hours… together with siege to the Third Army and transferring the town of Suez,” he mentioned.
Trump publicizes historic Iran-Israel ceasefire settlement to finish the “12-day conflict”
Dayton Accord (1995)
A Bosnian girl walks between the tombstones at Potkari Memorial Centre close to Srebrenica, Bosnia and Herzegovina on March 20, 2016. (AP Photo/Amel Emic)
The Dayton Peace Agreement, which ended the Bosnian War and mediated by the United States, established a step-by-step timeline for army withdrawals and political agreements. “It was the United Nations, a number of international locations that signed an settlement on what either side do and do not,” Spencer defined, in distinction to the extra looser phrases of the present Israel-Iran ceasefire.
Israel Hama Cerez-Fire (2014)
Smoke rose above the constructing northeast of Gaza metropolis after missiles had been fired from Gaza.
Spencer additionally had similarities to the 2014 conflict in Gaza. “Hamas would say, ‘Well, I need a ceasefire…till they break the following ceasefire,” he mentioned. Many of those contracts had an activation delay of 12-72 hours, related to what’s at present seen in Iran.
Proposal of Ukraine-Russia ceasefire
Soldiers from Ukraine’s 93rd Mechanized Brigade will fireplace French MO-120-RT heavy mortar on the Russian troops on the forefront of the town of Bakhmut within the Donetsk area of Ukraine on Wednesday, May 22, 2024.
More not too long ago, through the ongoing Russian-Ukraine conflict, ceasefires had been typically brief and symbolic. “President Putin mentioned, ‘I would like three days so we will parade,'” Spencer mentioned, highlighting how a short lived suspension will help each strategic and political wants.
Past ceasefires had been designed to sluggish escalation, however Spencer sees this as a part of a broader strategic doctrine. “It needs to be nonpartisan in order that Israel can do it alone within the US,” he mentioned. “It’s distinctive as a result of the United States does a really restricted operation with out dropping America’s life as soon as…it is distinctive.”
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Rescuers are working on the scene of the explosion after the Israeli strike in Tehran, Iran on Friday, June 13, 2025 (Iran’s Red Crescent Association by way of the AP)
Spencer described the ceasefire as “off ramp” for either side. “The ceasefire right here implies that either side will cease capturing at one another, not that Iran will cease reciting “loss of life to America and loss of life to Israel,” he mentioned. “But operation and hostility have stopped.”
Despite the shortage of formal phrases and worldwide enforcement, Spencer believes the settlement has created a brand new precedent. “This established a brand new doctrine,” he mentioned. He cited Israel’s potential to regulate Iran’s skies and the US response to the specter of nuclear proliferation. “If Iran decides to rebuild some websites someplace, the risk might be greater than ever.”
Spencer concluded, “It’s a victory. When the purple line can be a purple line, they’re efficient at deterrent.”
Efrat Lachter is an investigative reporter and conflict correspondent. Her work has taken her to 40 international locations, together with Ukraine, Russia, Iraq, Syria, Sudan and Afghanistan. She is the 2024 Night Vares Fellowship Journalism recipient. Lachter may be adopted by x @efratlachter.